CFB Analytics Dashboard

Navy

+170

8-2 • ATS: 3-7 • O/U: 8-2

25.9

Raw: 23.3 • Adj: 25.9

+4.5

Nov 27 • 7:30PM ET

VS

O/U 57.5 Model: 56.5 (u)

Memphis

-205

8-3 • ATS: 8-3 • O/U: 6-5

30.4

Raw: 24.4 • Adj: 30.4

-4.5

39.1%

60.9%

Spread Pick

Memphis +5.5 (-409)(54% Cover Probability)

Home Favorite Edge 0.1 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 68.5 (-316)(69% Hit Probability)

Edge 12.2 pts

Offensive Projections

Navy

Pass Yards

145

Pass Attempts

24

Completions

13

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

262

Rush Att

46

Rush TDs

2.0

Turnovers

0.9

Memphis

Pass Yards

225

Pass Attempts

37

Completions

21

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush Yards

169

Rush Att

31

Rush TDs

1.3

Turnovers

0.6

First Half

22.5

Memphis -0.9

Second Half

25.2

Memphis -0.2

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/27/2025 • 7:30PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Favorite

55.7% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

80.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: LEAN

Spread

Memphis +5.5 (-409)

+0.1

Model Prob: 53.8%
Market Implied: 80.4%

Conference Trend

Pick

35-31-2

53.0%

Total

UNDER 68.5 (-316)

+12.2

Model Prob: 68.6%
Market Implied: 76.0%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +2.8
Total Delta: +3.9
Home Residual: +5.2
Away Residual: +0.8
Raw Total: 47.7
Adjusted Total: 56.3

Team Form & Stats

Navy

Record 8-2 · ATS 3-7 · O/U 8-2

Model Score

25.9

Vegas Spread

+4.5

Passing Yds

145

Rushing Yds

262

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush TDs

2.0

Memphis

Record 8-3 · ATS 8-3 · O/U 6-5

Model Score

30.4

Vegas Spread

-4.5

Passing Yds

225

Rushing Yds

169

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush TDs

1.3

Recent Game Log

Navy

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs South Florida	W 41-38	✓	o
Nov 8, 2025	@ Notre Dame	L 10-49	✗	o
Nov 1, 2025	@ North Texas	L 17-31	✗	u
Oct 25, 2025	vs Florida Atlantic	W 42-32	✗	o
Oct 11, 2025	@ Temple	W 32-31	✗	o

Memphis

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ East Carolina	L 27-31	✗	o
Nov 7, 2025	vs Tulane	L 32-38	✗	o
Oct 31, 2025	@ Rice	W 38-14	✓	o
Oct 25, 2025	vs South Florida	W 34-31	✓	o
Oct 18, 2025	@ UAB	L 24-31	✗	u

Offensive Projections

Navy

Pass Yards

145

Pass Attempts

24

Completions

13

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

262

Rush Att

46

Rush TDs

2.0

Turnovers

0.9

Memphis

Pass Yards

225

Pass Attempts

37

Completions

21

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush Yards

169

Rush Att

31

Rush TDs

1.3

Turnovers

0.6

First Half

22.5

Memphis -0.9

Second Half

25.2

Memphis -0.2

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 54%

Total Confidence LEAN

Model Probability: 69%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 57.5

Model Play Line 68.5

Model Projection 56.3

Edge UNDER by 12.2

UNDER 69% Confidence

OVER 31%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

#5

Ole Miss

-290

10-1 • ATS: 6-5 • O/U: 6-5

31.3

Raw: 27.4 • Adj: 31.3

-7

Nov 28 • 12:00PM ET

VS

O/U 62.5 Model: 59 (u)

Mississippi State

+235

5-6 • ATS: 8-3 • O/U: 6-5

27.7

Raw: 21.8 • Adj: 27.7

+7

58%

42%

Spread Pick

Mississippi State +16.5 (-323)(77% Cover Probability)

Home Dog Edge 3.4 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 72.5 (-312)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 13.5 pts

Offensive Projections

Ole Miss

Pass Yards

239

Pass Attempts

35

Completions

21

Pass TDs

1.8

Rush Yards

234

Rush Att

47

Rush TDs

1.7

Turnovers

0.8

Mississippi State

Pass Yards

204

Pass Attempts

40

Completions

20

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

201

Rush Att

38

Rush TDs

1.3

Turnovers

1.1

First Half

23.4

Ole Miss -2.8

Second Half

25.7

Ole Miss -2.7

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/28/2025 • 12:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Dog

55.4% hit

ML Segment

Away Favorite

72.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Mississippi State +16.5 (-323)

+3.4

Model Prob: 77.4%
Market Implied: 76.4%

Conference Trend

Pick

30-28-4

51.7%

Total

UNDER 72.5 (-312)

+13.5

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 75.7%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: -2.2
Total Delta: +2.2
Home Residual: +3.4
Away Residual: —
Raw Total: 49.2
Adjusted Total: 59.0

Team Form & Stats

Ole Miss

Record 10-1 · ATS 6-5 · O/U 6-5

#5

Model Score

31.3

Vegas Spread

-7

Passing Yds

239

Rushing Yds

234

Pass TDs

1.8

Rush TDs

1.7

Mississippi State

Record 5-6 · ATS 8-3 · O/U 6-5

Model Score

27.7

Vegas Spread

+7

Passing Yds

204

Rushing Yds

201

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush TDs

1.3

Recent Game Log

Ole Miss

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Florida	W 34-24	✗	o
Nov 1, 2025	vs South Carolina	W 30-14	✓	u
Oct 25, 2025	@ Oklahoma	W 34-26	✓	o
Oct 18, 2025	@ Georgia	L 35-43	✗	o
Oct 11, 2025	vs Washington State	W 24-21	✗	u

Mississippi State

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Missouri	L 27-49	✗	o
Nov 8, 2025	vs Georgia	L 21-41	✗	o
Nov 1, 2025	@ Arkansas	W 38-35	✓	o
Oct 25, 2025	vs Texas	L 38-45	✓	o
Oct 18, 2025	@ Florida	L 21-23	✓	u

Offensive Projections

Ole Miss

Pass Yards

239

Pass Attempts

35

Completions

21

Pass TDs

1.8

Rush Yards

234

Rush Att

47

Rush TDs

1.7

Turnovers

0.8

Mississippi State

Pass Yards

204

Pass Attempts

40

Completions

20

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

201

Rush Att

38

Rush TDs

1.3

Turnovers

1.1

First Half

23.4

Ole Miss -2.8

Second Half

25.7

Ole Miss -2.7

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 77%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 62.5

Model Play Line 72.5

Model Projection 59.0

Edge UNDER by 13.5

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Kent State

+164

4-7 • ATS: 6-5 • O/U: 5-6

20.5

Raw: 20.2 • Adj: 20.5

+5

Nov 28 • 12:00PM ET

VS

O/U 45 Model: 40 (u)

Northern Illinois

-198

3-8 • ATS: 3-8 • O/U: 5-6

19.7

Raw: 18.3 • Adj: 19.7

-5

51.8%

48.2%

Spread Pick

Northern Illinois +4 (-373)(54% Cover Probability)

Away Dog Edge 4.2 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 55.5 (-371)(86% Hit Probability)

Edge 15.3 pts

Offensive Projections

Kent State

Pass Yards

159

Pass Attempts

31

Completions

15

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush Yards

208

Rush Att

35

Rush TDs

1.2

Turnovers

1.3

Northern Illinois

Pass Yards

146

Pass Attempts

32

Completions

17

Pass TDs

0.8

Rush Yards

234

Rush Att

45

Rush TDs

1.3

Turnovers

1.0

First Half

17.3

Kent State -0.7

Second Half

21.2

Kent State -1.2

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/28/2025 • 12:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Dog

48.3% hit

ML Segment

Away Dog

40.4% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LEAN · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Northern Illinois +4 (-373)

-4.2

Model Prob: 53.8%
Market Implied: 78.9%

Conference Trend

Pick

37-31-1

54.4%

Total

UNDER 55.5 (-371)

+15.3

Model Prob: 85.8%
Market Implied: 78.8%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: -0.9
Total Delta: -1.0
Home Residual: -1.4
Away Residual: -0.0
Raw Total: 38.6
Adjusted Total: 40.2

Team Form & Stats

Kent State

Record 4-7 · ATS 6-5 · O/U 5-6

Model Score

20.5

Vegas Spread

+5

Passing Yds

159

Rushing Yds

208

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush TDs

1.2

Northern Illinois

Record 3-8 · ATS 3-8 · O/U 5-6

Model Score

19.7

Vegas Spread

-5

Passing Yds

146

Rushing Yds

234

Pass TDs

0.8

Rush TDs

1.3

Recent Game Log

Kent State

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 11, 2025	@ Akron	W 42-35	✓	o
Nov 5, 2025	@ Ball State	L 13-17	✗	u
Oct 25, 2025	vs Bowling Green	W 24-21	✓	u
Oct 18, 2025	@ Toledo	L 10-45	✗	o
Oct 11, 2025	vs Massachusetts	W 42-6	✓	u

Northern Illinois

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 12, 2025	@ Massachusetts	W 45-3	✓	o
Nov 5, 2025	@ Toledo	L 3-42	✗	o
Oct 25, 2025	vs Ball State	W 21-7	✓	u
Oct 18, 2025	@ Ohio	L 21-48	✗	o
Oct 11, 2025	@ Eastern Michigan	L 10-16	✗	u

Offensive Projections

Kent State

Pass Yards

159

Pass Attempts

31

Completions

15

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush Yards

208

Rush Att

35

Rush TDs

1.2

Turnovers

1.3

Northern Illinois

Pass Yards

146

Pass Attempts

32

Completions

17

Pass TDs

0.8

Rush Yards

234

Rush Att

45

Rush TDs

1.3

Turnovers

1.0

First Half

17.3

Kent State -0.7

Second Half

21.2

Kent State -1.2

Spread Confidence LEAN

Model Probability: 54%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 86%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 45

Model Play Line 55.5

Model Projection 40.2

Edge UNDER by 15.3

UNDER 86% Confidence

14%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Ohio

-270

7-4 • ATS: 5-5-1 • O/U: 5-6

24.8

Raw: 22.1 • Adj: 24.8

-7

Nov 28 • 12:00PM ET

VS

O/U 44 Model: 42.5 (u)

Buffalo

+220

5-6 • ATS: 3-7-1 • O/U: 6-5

17.8

Raw: 16.5 • Adj: 17.8

+7

67.3%

32.7%

Spread Pick

Buffalo +16.5 (-330)(77% Cover Probability)

Away Favorite Edge 0.0 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 54.5 (-365)(75% Hit Probability)

Edge 11.8 pts

Offensive Projections

Ohio

Pass Yards

148

Pass Attempts

27

Completions

14

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

226

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

1.7

Turnovers

1.1

Buffalo

Pass Yards

140

Pass Attempts

33

Completions

16

Pass TDs

0.8

Rush Yards

181

Rush Att

36

Rush TDs

1.3

Turnovers

0.7

First Half

18.4

Ohio -2.4

Second Half

20.1

Ohio -3.3

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/28/2025 • 12:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Favorite

70.4% hit

ML Segment

Away Favorite

72.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: LEAN

Spread

Buffalo +16.5 (-330)

-0.0

Model Prob: 77.4%
Market Implied: 76.7%

Conference Trend

Pick

37-31-1

54.4%

Total

UNDER 54.5 (-365)

+11.8

Model Prob: 75.0%
Market Implied: 78.5%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +1.1
Total Delta: +2.1
Home Residual: +0.7
Away Residual: +2.5
Raw Total: 38.6
Adjusted Total: 42.7

Team Form & Stats

Ohio

Record 7-4 · ATS 5-5-1 · O/U 5-6

Model Score

24.8

Vegas Spread

-7

Passing Yds

148

Rushing Yds

226

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush TDs

1.7

Buffalo

Record 5-6 · ATS 3-7-1 · O/U 6-5

Model Score

17.8

Vegas Spread

+7

Passing Yds

140

Rushing Yds

181

Pass TDs

0.8

Rush TDs

1.3

Recent Game Log

Ohio

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 11, 2025	@ Western Michigan	L 13-17	✗	u
Nov 4, 2025	vs Miami (OH)	W 24-20	✓	u
Oct 25, 2025	@ Eastern Michigan	W 28-21	✗	u
Oct 18, 2025	vs Northern Illinois	W 48-21	✓	o
Oct 4, 2025	@ Ball State	L 14-20	✗	u

Buffalo

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 12, 2025	@ Central Michigan	L 19-38	✗	o
Nov 1, 2025	@ Bowling Green	W 28-3	✓	u
Oct 25, 2025	vs Akron	L 16-24	✗	u
Oct 18, 2025	@ Massachusetts	W 28-21	✗	o
Oct 4, 2025	vs Eastern Michigan	W 31-30	✗	o

Offensive Projections

Ohio

Pass Yards

148

Pass Attempts

27

Completions

14

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

226

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

1.7

Turnovers

1.1

Buffalo

Pass Yards

140

Pass Attempts

33

Completions

16

Pass TDs

0.8

Rush Yards

181

Rush Att

36

Rush TDs

1.3

Turnovers

0.7

First Half

18.4

Ohio -2.4

Second Half

20.1

Ohio -3.3

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 77%

Total Confidence LEAN

Model Probability: 75%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 44

Model Play Line 54.5

Model Projection 42.7

Edge UNDER by 11.8

UNDER 75% Confidence

25%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

#13

Utah

-455

9-2 • ATS: 8-3 • O/U: 8-3

34.2

Raw: 17.9 • Adj: 34.2

-12.5

Nov 28 • 12:00PM ET

VS

O/U 60.5 Model: 58.5 (u)

Kansas

+350

5-6 • ATS: 4-7 • O/U: 4-6

24.5

Raw: 23.0 • Adj: 24.5

+12.5

73.6%

26.4%

Spread Pick

Kansas +22.5 (-368)(79% Cover Probability)

Home Dog Edge 2.8 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 67.5 (-249)(73% Hit Probability)

Edge 8.8 pts

Offensive Projections

Utah

Pass Yards

147

Pass Attempts

29

Completions

16

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush Yards

205

Rush Att

39

Rush TDs

1.2

Turnovers

1.0

Kansas

Pass Yards

180

Pass Attempts

27

Completions

15

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

220

Rush Att

40

Rush TDs

1.6

Turnovers

1.0

First Half

18.8

Kansas -1.8

Second Half

22.2

Kansas -3.2

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/28/2025 • 12:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Dog

55.4% hit

ML Segment

Away Favorite

72.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: LEAN

Spread

Kansas +22.5 (-368)

+2.8

Model Prob: 79.0%
Market Implied: 78.6%

Conference Trend

Pick

34-37-1

47.9%

Total

UNDER 67.5 (-249)

+8.8

Model Prob: 73.1%
Market Implied: 71.3%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +6.0
Total Delta: +6.0
Home Residual: -3.7
Away Residual: +19.7
Raw Total: 40.9
Adjusted Total: 58.7

Team Form & Stats

Utah

Record 9-2 · ATS 8-3 · O/U 8-3

#13

Model Score

34.2

Vegas Spread

-12.5

Passing Yds

147

Rushing Yds

205

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush TDs

1.2

Kansas

Record 5-6 · ATS 4-7 · O/U 4-6

Model Score

24.5

Vegas Spread

+12.5

Passing Yds

180

Rushing Yds

220

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush TDs

1.6

Recent Game Log

Utah

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Baylor	W 55-28	✓	o
Nov 1, 2025	vs Cincinnati	W 45-14	✓	o
Oct 25, 2025	vs Colorado	W 53-7	✓	o
Oct 18, 2025	@ BYU	L 21-24	✗	u
Oct 11, 2025	vs Arizona State	W 42-10	✓	o

Kansas

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 8, 2025	@ Arizona	L 20-24	✓	u
Nov 1, 2025	vs Oklahoma State	W 38-21	✗	o
Oct 25, 2025	vs Kansas State	L 17-42	✗	o
Oct 11, 2025	@ Texas Tech	L 17-42	✗	o
Oct 4, 2025	@ UCF	W 27-20	✓	u

Offensive Projections

Utah

Pass Yards

147

Pass Attempts

29

Completions

16

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush Yards

205

Rush Att

39

Rush TDs

1.2

Turnovers

1.0

Kansas

Pass Yards

180

Pass Attempts

27

Completions

15

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

220

Rush Att

40

Rush TDs

1.6

Turnovers

1.0

First Half

18.8

Kansas -1.8

Second Half

22.2

Kansas -3.2

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 79%

Total Confidence LEAN

Model Probability: 73%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 60.5

Model Play Line 67.5

Model Projection 58.7

Edge UNDER by 8.8

UNDER 73% Confidence

27%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Iowa

-238

7-4 • ATS: 7-4 • O/U: 4-6

23.2

Raw: 21.8 • Adj: 23.2

-6

Nov 28 • 12:00PM ET

VS

O/U 38.5 Model: 40 (o)

Nebraska

+195

7-4 • ATS: 4-7 • O/U: 8-3

16.7

Raw: 16.7

+6

66%

34%

Spread Pick

Nebraska +15.5 (-359)(77% Cover Probability)

Away Favorite Edge 0.5 pts

Total Pick

OVER 28.5 (-421)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 11.4 pts

Offensive Projections

Iowa

Pass Yards

142

Pass Attempts

29

Completions

16

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

221

Rush Att

41

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

0.9

Nebraska

Pass Yards

182

Pass Attempts

34

Completions

21

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

172

Rush Att

35

Rush TDs

1.0

Turnovers

0.9

First Half

17.8

Iowa -2.6

Second Half

20.7

Iowa -2.5

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/28/2025 • 12:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Favorite

70.4% hit

ML Segment

Away Favorite

72.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Nebraska +15.5 (-359)

-0.5

Model Prob: 77.4%
Market Implied: 78.2%

Conference Trend

Pick

40-33-2

54.8%

Total

OVER 28.5 (-421)

+11.4

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 80.8%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +1.3
Total Delta: +1.4
Home Residual: +0.0
Away Residual: +2.1
Raw Total: 38.5
Adjusted Total: 39.9

Team Form & Stats

Iowa

Record 7-4 · ATS 7-4 · O/U 4-6

Model Score

23.2

Vegas Spread

-6

Passing Yds

142

Rushing Yds

221

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush TDs

1.5

Nebraska

Record 7-4 · ATS 4-7 · O/U 8-3

Model Score

16.7

Vegas Spread

+6

Passing Yds

182

Rushing Yds

172

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush TDs

1.0

Recent Game Log

Iowa

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ USC	L 21-26	✓	u
Nov 8, 2025	vs Oregon	L 16-18	✓	u
Oct 25, 2025	vs Minnesota	W 41-3	✓	o
Oct 18, 2025	vs Penn State	W 25-24	✗	o
Oct 11, 2025	@ Wisconsin	W 37-0	✓	u

Nebraska

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 8, 2025	@ UCLA	W 28-21	✓	o
Nov 1, 2025	vs USC	L 17-21	✓	u
Oct 25, 2025	vs Northwestern	W 28-21	✗	o
Oct 17, 2025	@ Minnesota	L 6-24	✗	u
Oct 11, 2025	@ Maryland	W 34-31	✗	o

Offensive Projections

Iowa

Pass Yards

142

Pass Attempts

29

Completions

16

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

221

Rush Att

41

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

0.9

Nebraska

Pass Yards

182

Pass Attempts

34

Completions

21

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

172

Rush Att

35

Rush TDs

1.0

Turnovers

0.9

First Half

17.8

Iowa -2.6

Second Half

20.7

Iowa -2.5

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 77%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 38.5

Model Play Line 28.5

Model Projection 39.9

Edge OVER by 11.4

OVER 79% Confidence

OVER 79%

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Air Force

-142

3-8 • ATS: 4-7 • O/U: 6-5

20.7

Raw: 17.8 • Adj: 20.7

-2.5

Nov 28 • 3:00PM ET

VS

O/U 45.5 Model: 39.5 (u)

Colorado State

+120

2-9 • ATS: 4-7 • O/U: 4-7

18.7

Raw: 19.5 • Adj: 18.7

+2.5

55.1%

44.9%

Spread Pick

Air Force +7.5 (-536)(68% Cover Probability)

Home Dog Edge 0.6 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 55.5 (-340)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 16.1 pts

Offensive Projections

Air Force

Pass Yards

103

Pass Attempts

18

Completions

9

Pass TDs

0.6

Rush Yards

256

Rush Att

52

Rush TDs

1.6

Turnovers

0.9

Colorado State

Pass Yards

160

Pass Attempts

28

Completions

16

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush Yards

201

Rush Att

38

Rush TDs

1.4

Turnovers

1.0

First Half

17.3

Colorado State -0.5

Second Half

20.1

Colorado State -1.3

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/28/2025 • 3:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Dog

55.4% hit

ML Segment

Away Favorite

72.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Air Force +7.5 (-536)

-0.6

Model Prob: 68.0%
Market Implied: 84.3%

Conference Trend

Pick

33-22-1

60.0%

Total

UNDER 55.5 (-340)

+16.1

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 77.3%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +2.7
Total Delta: -1.6
Home Residual: -3.2
Away Residual: +0.9
Raw Total: 37.3
Adjusted Total: 39.4

Team Form & Stats

Air Force

Record 3-8 · ATS 4-7 · O/U 6-5

Model Score

20.7

Vegas Spread

-2.5

Passing Yds

103

Rushing Yds

256

Pass TDs

0.6

Rush TDs

1.6

Colorado State

Record 2-9 · ATS 4-7 · O/U 4-7

Model Score

18.7

Vegas Spread

+2.5

Passing Yds

160

Rushing Yds

201

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush TDs

1.4

Recent Game Log

Air Force

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ UConn	L 16-26	✗	u
Nov 8, 2025	@ San José State	W 26-16	✓	u
Nov 1, 2025	vs Army	L 17-20	✗	u
Oct 18, 2025	vs Wyoming	W 24-21	✗	u
Oct 11, 2025	@ UNLV	L 48-51	✓	o

Colorado State

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ New Mexico	L 17-20	✓	u
Nov 8, 2025	vs UNLV	L 10-42	✗	u
Oct 25, 2025	@ Wyoming	L 0-28	✗	u
Oct 18, 2025	vs Hawai'i	L 19-31	✗	u
Oct 10, 2025	vs Fresno State	W 49-21	✓	o

Offensive Projections

Air Force

Pass Yards

103

Pass Attempts

18

Completions

9

Pass TDs

0.6

Rush Yards

256

Rush Att

52

Rush TDs

1.6

Turnovers

0.9

Colorado State

Pass Yards

160

Pass Attempts

28

Completions

16

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush Yards

201

Rush Att

38

Rush TDs

1.4

Turnovers

1.0

First Half

17.3

Colorado State -0.5

Second Half

20.1

Colorado State -1.3

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 68%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 45.5

Model Play Line 55.5

Model Projection 39.4

Edge UNDER by 16.1

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

San Diego State

-120

9-2 • ATS: 9-2 • O/U: 3-8

20.5

Raw: 18.1 • Adj: 20.5

-1.5

Nov 28 • 3:30PM ET

VS

O/U 41 Model: 45 (o)

New Mexico

+100

8-3 • ATS: 6-5 • O/U: 4-7

24.7

Raw: 29.5 • Adj: 24.7

+1.5

40.6%

59.4%

Spread Pick

New Mexico +11.5 (-589)(78% Cover Probability)

Away Favorite Edge 2.7 pts

Total Pick

OVER 31.5 (-379)(78% Hit Probability)

Edge 13.7 pts

Offensive Projections

San Diego State

Pass Yards

191

Pass Attempts

40

Completions

22

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush Yards

192

Rush Att

40

Rush TDs

1.1

Turnovers

0.9

New Mexico

Pass Yards

173

Pass Attempts

31

Completions

17

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush Yards

296

Rush Att

48

Rush TDs

2.2

Turnovers

1.0

First Half

22.4

New Mexico -5.0

Second Half

25.2

New Mexico -6.4

Betting Overview

BEST BET · Spread · New Mexico +11.5 (-589) · LOW

Top recommended play highlighted below.

Kickoff

11/28/2025 • 3:30PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Favorite

70.4% hit

ML Segment

Home Dog

47.9% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: LEAN

Spread

New Mexico +11.5 (-589)

-2.7

Model Prob: 78.4%
Market Implied: 85.5%

Conference Trend

Pick

33-22-1

60.0%

Total

OVER 31.5 (-379)

+13.7

Model Prob: 78.1%
Market Implied: 79.1%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +1.5
Total Delta: +0.3
Home Residual: -0.9
Away Residual: +1.3
Raw Total: 47.6
Adjusted Total: 45.2

Team Form & Stats

San Diego State

Record 9-2 · ATS 9-2 · O/U 3-8

Model Score

20.5

Vegas Spread

-1.5

Passing Yds

191

Rushing Yds

192

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush TDs

1.1

New Mexico

Record 8-3 · ATS 6-5 · O/U 4-7

Model Score

24.7

Vegas Spread

+1.5

Passing Yds

173

Rushing Yds

296

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush TDs

2.2

Recent Game Log

San Diego State

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Boise State	W 17-7	✓	u
Nov 8, 2025	@ Hawai'i	L 6-38	✗	u
Nov 1, 2025	vs Wyoming	W 24-7	✓	u
Oct 25, 2025	@ Fresno State	W 23-0	✓	u
Oct 11, 2025	@ Nevada	W 44-10	✓	o

New Mexico

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Colorado State	W 20-17	✗	u
Nov 1, 2025	@ UNLV	W 40-35	✓	o
Oct 25, 2025	vs Utah State	W 33-14	✓	u
Oct 18, 2025	vs Nevada	W 24-22	✗	u
Oct 11, 2025	@ Boise State	L 25-41	✗	o

Offensive Projections

San Diego State

Pass Yards

191

Pass Attempts

40

Completions

22

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush Yards

192

Rush Att

40

Rush TDs

1.1

Turnovers

0.9

New Mexico

Pass Yards

173

Pass Attempts

31

Completions

17

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush Yards

296

Rush Att

48

Rush TDs

2.2

Turnovers

1.0

First Half

22.4

New Mexico -5.0

Second Half

25.2

New Mexico -6.4

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 78%

Total Confidence LEAN

Model Probability: 78%

Recommended Bets

TOTAL

OVER 31.5 (-379)

78%

Edge

+13.7 pts

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 41

Model Play Line 31.5

Model Projection 45.2

Edge OVER by 13.7

OVER 78% Confidence

OVER 78%

22%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Temple

+850

5-6 • ATS: 7-4 • O/U: 7-4

21.9

Raw: 16.8 • Adj: 21.9

+19.5

Nov 28 • 3:30PM ET

VS

O/U 65.5 Model: 62.5 (u)

#22

North Texas

-1450

10-1 • ATS: 9-2 • O/U: 8-3

40.5

Raw: 26.0 • Adj: 40.5

-19.5

11.5%

88.5%

Spread Pick

North Texas -9.5 (-359)(78% Cover Probability)

Away Dog Edge 0.8 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 75.5 (-338)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 13.1 pts

Offensive Projections

Temple

Pass Yards

201

Pass Attempts

42

Completions

23

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

151

Rush Att

32

Rush TDs

0.8

Turnovers

1.2

North Texas

Pass Yards

235

Pass Attempts

37

Completions

22

Pass TDs

1.9

Rush Yards

224

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

0.9

First Half

20.4

North Texas -3.6

Second Half

22.3

North Texas -5.7

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/28/2025 • 3:30PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Dog

48.3% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

80.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

North Texas -9.5 (-359)

-0.8

Model Prob: 78.4%
Market Implied: 78.2%

Conference Trend

Pick

35-31-2

53.0%

Total

UNDER 75.5 (-338)

+13.1

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 77.2%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +4.6
Total Delta: +6.0
Home Residual: +11.2
Away Residual: +4.0
Raw Total: 42.7
Adjusted Total: 62.4

Team Form & Stats

Temple

Record 5-6 · ATS 7-4 · O/U 7-4

Model Score

21.9

Vegas Spread

+19.5

Passing Yds

201

Rushing Yds

151

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush TDs

0.8

North Texas

Record 10-1 · ATS 9-2 · O/U 8-3

#22

Model Score

40.5

Vegas Spread

-19.5

Passing Yds

235

Rushing Yds

224

Pass TDs

1.9

Rush TDs

1.5

Recent Game Log

Temple

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 8, 2025	@ Army	L 13-14	✓	u
Nov 1, 2025	vs East Carolina	L 14-45	✗	o
Oct 25, 2025	@ Tulsa	W 38-37	✗	o
Oct 18, 2025	@ Charlotte	W 49-14	✓	o
Oct 11, 2025	vs Navy	L 31-32	✓	o

North Texas

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ UAB	W 53-24	✓	o
Nov 1, 2025	vs Navy	W 31-17	✓	u
Oct 24, 2025	@ Charlotte	W 54-20	✓	o
Oct 18, 2025	vs UTSA	W 55-17	✓	o
Oct 10, 2025	vs South Florida	L 36-63	✗	o

Offensive Projections

Temple

Pass Yards

201

Pass Attempts

42

Completions

23

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

151

Rush Att

32

Rush TDs

0.8

Turnovers

1.2

North Texas

Pass Yards

235

Pass Attempts

37

Completions

22

Pass TDs

1.9

Rush Yards

224

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

0.9

First Half

20.4

North Texas -3.6

Second Half

22.3

North Texas -5.7

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 78%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 65.5

Model Play Line 75.5

Model Projection 62.4

Edge UNDER by 13.1

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

#4

Georgia

-575

10-1 • ATS: 5-6 • O/U: 4-7

31.1

Raw: 22.4 • Adj: 31.1

-13.5

Nov 28 • 3:30PM ET

VS

O/U 59.5 Model: 57.5 (u)

#15

Georgia Tech

+425

9-2 • ATS: 6-5 • O/U: 7-4

26.5

Raw: 22.4 • Adj: 26.5

+13.5

61.2%

38.8%

Spread Pick

Georgia Tech +23.5 (-322)(78% Cover Probability)

Home Dog Edge 8.9 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 69.5 (-333)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 11.9 pts

Offensive Projections

Georgia

Pass Yards

199

Pass Attempts

33

Completions

20

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush Yards

201

Rush Att

37

Rush TDs

1.2

Turnovers

1.0

Georgia Tech

Pass Yards

161

Pass Attempts

27

Completions

14

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush Yards

227

Rush Att

43

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

0.5

First Half

20.8

Georgia Tech -0.6

Second Half

24.1

Georgia -0.5

Betting Overview

BEST BET · Spread · Georgia Tech +23.5 (-322) · LOW

Top recommended play highlighted below.

Kickoff

11/28/2025 • 3:30PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Dog

55.4% hit

ML Segment

Away Favorite

72.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Georgia Tech +23.5 (-322)

+8.9

Model Prob: 78.4%
Market Implied: 76.3%

Conference Trend

Pick

36-37-3

49.3%

Opponent

30-28-4

51.7%

Total

UNDER 69.5 (-333)

+11.9

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 76.9%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: -1.5
Total Delta: +4.0
Home Residual: +4.3
Away Residual: +1.9
Raw Total: 44.8
Adjusted Total: 57.6

Team Form & Stats

Georgia

Record 10-1 · ATS 5-6 · O/U 4-7

#4

Model Score

31.1

Vegas Spread

-13.5

Passing Yds

199

Rushing Yds

201

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush TDs

1.2

Georgia Tech

Record 9-2 · ATS 6-5 · O/U 7-4

#15

Model Score

26.5

Vegas Spread

+13.5

Passing Yds

161

Rushing Yds

227

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush TDs

1.5

Recent Game Log

Georgia

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Texas	W 35-10	✓	u
Nov 8, 2025	@ Mississippi State	W 41-21	✓	o
Nov 1, 2025	@ Florida	W 24-20	✗	u
Oct 18, 2025	vs Ole Miss	W 43-35	✓	o
Oct 11, 2025	@ Auburn	W 20-10	✓	u

Georgia Tech

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Boston College	W 36-34	✗	o
Nov 1, 2025	@ NC State	L 36-48	✗	o
Oct 25, 2025	vs Syracuse	W 41-16	✓	o
Oct 18, 2025	@ Duke	W 27-18	✓	u
Oct 11, 2025	vs Virginia Tech	W 35-20	✓	u

Offensive Projections

Georgia

Pass Yards

199

Pass Attempts

33

Completions

20

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush Yards

201

Rush Att

37

Rush TDs

1.2

Turnovers

1.0

Georgia Tech

Pass Yards

161

Pass Attempts

27

Completions

14

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush Yards

227

Rush Att

43

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

0.5

First Half

20.8

Georgia Tech -0.6

Second Half

24.1

Georgia -0.5

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 78%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

Recommended Bets

SPREAD

Georgia Tech +23.5 (-322)

78%

Edge

+8.9 pts

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 59.5

Model Play Line 69.5

Model Projection 57.6

Edge UNDER by 11.9

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Boise State

-166

7-4 • ATS: 8-3 • O/U: 6-5

27.9

Raw: 27.2 • Adj: 27.9

-3.5

Nov 28 • 4:00PM ET

VS

O/U 56 Model: 53 (u)

Utah State

+140

6-5 • ATS: 9-2 • O/U: 5-6

25.3

Raw: 24.2 • Adj: 25.3

+3.5

55.6%

44.4%

Spread Pick

Utah State +13.5 (-393)(78% Cover Probability)

Home Dog Edge 1.0 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 65.5 (-293)(78% Hit Probability)

Edge 12.3 pts

Offensive Projections

Boise State

Pass Yards

184

Pass Attempts

30

Completions

17

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush Yards

264

Rush Att

47

Rush TDs

2.0

Turnovers

0.7

Utah State

Pass Yards

211

Pass Attempts

36

Completions

22

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush Yards

240

Rush Att

38

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

1.1

First Half

25.1

Boise State -0.3

Second Half

26.3

Boise State -2.7

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/28/2025 • 4:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Dog

55.4% hit

ML Segment

Away Favorite

72.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: LEAN

Spread

Utah State +13.5 (-393)

+1.0

Model Prob: 78.4%
Market Implied: 79.7%

Conference Trend

Pick

33-22-1

60.0%

Total

UNDER 65.5 (-293)

+12.3

Model Prob: 78.1%
Market Implied: 74.6%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: -0.6
Total Delta: +0.2
Home Residual: +0.6
Away Residual: -0.3
Raw Total: 51.4
Adjusted Total: 53.2

Team Form & Stats

Boise State

Record 7-4 · ATS 8-3 · O/U 6-5

Model Score

27.9

Vegas Spread

-3.5

Passing Yds

184

Rushing Yds

264

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush TDs

2.0

Utah State

Record 6-5 · ATS 9-2 · O/U 5-6

Model Score

25.3

Vegas Spread

+3.5

Passing Yds

211

Rushing Yds

240

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush TDs

1.5

Recent Game Log

Boise State

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ San Diego State	L 7-17	✗	u
Nov 1, 2025	vs Fresno State	L 7-30	✗	u
Oct 24, 2025	@ Nevada	W 24-3	✗	u
Oct 18, 2025	vs UNLV	W 56-31	✓	o
Oct 11, 2025	vs New Mexico	W 41-25	✓	o

Utah State

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ UNLV	L 26-29	✓	u
Nov 8, 2025	vs Nevada	W 51-14	✓	o
Oct 25, 2025	@ New Mexico	L 14-33	✗	u
Oct 17, 2025	vs San José State	W 30-25	✓	u
Oct 11, 2025	@ Hawai'i	L 26-44	✗	o

Offensive Projections

Boise State

Pass Yards

184

Pass Attempts

30

Completions

17

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush Yards

264

Rush Att

47

Rush TDs

2.0

Turnovers

0.7

Utah State

Pass Yards

211

Pass Attempts

36

Completions

22

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush Yards

240

Rush Att

38

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

1.1

First Half

25.1

Boise State -0.3

Second Half

26.3

Boise State -2.7

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 78%

Total Confidence LEAN

Model Probability: 78%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 56

Model Play Line 65.5

Model Projection 53.2

Edge UNDER by 12.3

UNDER 78% Confidence

22%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

#2

Indiana

-4500

11-0 • ATS: 6-5 • O/U: 7-4

37.8

Raw: 25.7 • Adj: 37.8

-28.5

Nov 28 • 7:30PM ET

VS

O/U 54.5 Model: 51 (u)

Purdue

+1700

2-9 • ATS: 5-6 • O/U: 3-8

13.1

Raw: 16.8 • Adj: 13.1

+28.5

93.7%

6.3%

Spread Pick

Purdue +38.5 (-319)(78% Cover Probability)

Home Dog Edge 3.8 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 64.5 (-363)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 13.7 pts

Offensive Projections

Indiana

Pass Yards

194

Pass Attempts

30

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush Yards

195

Rush Att

38

Rush TDs

1.7

Turnovers

0.6

Purdue

Pass Yards

193

Pass Attempts

38

Completions

21

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

156

Rush Att

31

Rush TDs

0.8

Turnovers

1.1

First Half

19.9

Indiana -2.7

Second Half

22.6

Indiana -6.2

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/28/2025 • 7:30PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Dog

55.4% hit

ML Segment

Away Favorite

72.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Purdue +38.5 (-319)

+3.8

Model Prob: 78.4%
Market Implied: 76.1%

Conference Trend

Pick

40-33-2

54.8%

Total

UNDER 64.5 (-363)

+13.7

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 78.4%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +6.0
Total Delta: +1.9
Home Residual: -3.4
Away Residual: +6.3
Raw Total: 42.5
Adjusted Total: 50.8

Team Form & Stats

Indiana

Record 11-0 · ATS 6-5 · O/U 7-4

#2

Model Score

37.8

Vegas Spread

-28.5

Passing Yds

194

Rushing Yds

195

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush TDs

1.7

Purdue

Record 2-9 · ATS 5-6 · O/U 3-8

Model Score

13.1

Vegas Spread

+28.5

Passing Yds

193

Rushing Yds

156

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush TDs

0.8

Recent Game Log

Indiana

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Wisconsin	W 31-7	✗	u
Nov 8, 2025	@ Penn State	W 27-24	✗	o
Nov 1, 2025	@ Maryland	W 55-10	✓	o
Oct 25, 2025	vs UCLA	W 56-6	✓	o
Oct 18, 2025	vs Michigan State	W 38-13	✗	o

Purdue

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Washington	L 13-49	✗	o
Nov 8, 2025	vs Ohio State	L 10-34	✓	u
Nov 1, 2025	@ Michigan	L 16-21	✓	u
Oct 25, 2025	vs Rutgers	L 24-27	✗	u
Oct 18, 2025	@ Northwestern	L 0-19	✗	u

Offensive Projections

Indiana

Pass Yards

194

Pass Attempts

30

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush Yards

195

Rush Att

38

Rush TDs

1.7

Turnovers

0.6

Purdue

Pass Yards

193

Pass Attempts

38

Completions

21

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

156

Rush Att

31

Rush TDs

0.8

Turnovers

1.1

First Half

19.9

Indiana -2.7

Second Half

22.6

Indiana -6.2

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 78%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 54.5

Model Play Line 64.5

Model Projection 50.8

Edge UNDER by 13.7

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

#3

Texas A&M

-130

11-0 • ATS: 5-6 • O/U: 8-3

28.4

Raw: 23.7 • Adj: 28.4

-2

Nov 28 • 7:30PM ET

VS

O/U 51.5 Model: 54 (o)

#17

Texas

+110

8-3 • ATS: 3-8 • O/U: 5-6

25.4

Raw: 21.7 • Adj: 25.4

+2

56.7%

43.3%

Spread Pick

Texas A&M +8 (-437)(68% Cover Probability)

Away Favorite Edge 0.9 pts

Total Pick

OVER 41.5 (-343)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 12.3 pts

Offensive Projections

Texas A&M

Pass Yards

169

Pass Attempts

30

Completions

16

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush Yards

236

Rush Att

41

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

0.9

Texas

Pass Yards

248

Pass Attempts

36

Completions

23

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush Yards

186

Rush Att

39

Rush TDs

1.2

Turnovers

1.1

First Half

21.2

Texas A&M -0.4

Second Half

24.2

Texas A&M -1.6

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/28/2025 • 7:30PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Favorite

70.4% hit

ML Segment

Away Favorite

72.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Texas A&M +8 (-437)

+0.9

Model Prob: 68.0%
Market Implied: 81.4%

Conference Trend

Pick

30-28-4

51.7%

Total

OVER 41.5 (-343)

+12.3

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 77.4%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +0.9
Total Delta: +6.0
Home Residual: +5.0
Away Residual: +6.4
Raw Total: 45.4
Adjusted Total: 53.8

Team Form & Stats

Texas A&M

Record 11-0 · ATS 5-6 · O/U 8-3

#3

Model Score

28.4

Vegas Spread

-2

Passing Yds

169

Rushing Yds

236

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush TDs

1.5

Texas

Record 8-3 · ATS 3-8 · O/U 5-6

#17

Model Score

25.4

Vegas Spread

+2

Passing Yds

248

Rushing Yds

186

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush TDs

1.2

Recent Game Log

Texas A&M

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs South Carolina	W 31-30	✗	o
Nov 8, 2025	@ Missouri	W 38-17	✓	o
Oct 25, 2025	@ LSU	W 49-25	✓	o
Oct 18, 2025	@ Arkansas	W 45-42	✗	o
Oct 11, 2025	vs Florida	W 34-17	✓	o

Texas

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Georgia	L 10-35	✗	u
Nov 1, 2025	vs Vanderbilt	W 34-31	✗	o
Oct 25, 2025	@ Mississippi State	W 45-38	✗	o
Oct 18, 2025	@ Kentucky	W 16-13	✗	u
Oct 11, 2025	vs Oklahoma	W 23-6	✓	u

Offensive Projections

Texas A&M

Pass Yards

169

Pass Attempts

30

Completions

16

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush Yards

236

Rush Att

41

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

0.9

Texas

Pass Yards

248

Pass Attempts

36

Completions

23

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush Yards

186

Rush Att

39

Rush TDs

1.2

Turnovers

1.1

First Half

21.2

Texas A&M -0.4

Second Half

24.2

Texas A&M -1.6

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 68%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 51.5

Model Play Line 41.5

Model Projection 53.8

Edge OVER by 12.3

OVER 79% Confidence

OVER 79%

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Arizona

-125

8-3 • ATS: 7-4 • O/U: 4-7

25.9

Raw: 16.6 • Adj: 25.9

-1.5

Nov 28 • 9:00PM ET

VS

O/U 48.5 Model: 50 (o)

Arizona State

+105

8-3 • ATS: 6-5 • O/U: 4-7

23.9

Raw: 23.4 • Adj: 23.9

+1.5

54.9%

45.1%

Spread Pick

Arizona +8.5 (-427)(71% Cover Probability)

Away Favorite Edge 0.4 pts

Total Pick

OVER 38.5 (-296)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 11.3 pts

Offensive Projections

Arizona

Pass Yards

180

Pass Attempts

35

Completions

19

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush Yards

168

Rush Att

35

Rush TDs

0.9

Turnovers

1.1

Arizona State

Pass Yards

206

Pass Attempts

32

Completions

20

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush Yards

209

Rush Att

40

Rush TDs

1.6

Turnovers

0.6

First Half

18.3

Arizona State -2.3

Second Half

21.7

Arizona State -4.5

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/28/2025 • 9:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Favorite

70.4% hit

ML Segment

Away Favorite

72.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Arizona +8.5 (-427)

+0.4

Model Prob: 70.7%
Market Implied: 81.0%

Conference Trend

Pick

34-37-1

47.9%

Total

OVER 38.5 (-296)

+11.3

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 74.7%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +6.0
Total Delta: +6.0
Home Residual: -0.4
Away Residual: +9.3
Raw Total: 40.0
Adjusted Total: 49.8

Team Form & Stats

Arizona

Record 8-3 · ATS 7-4 · O/U 4-7

Model Score

25.9

Vegas Spread

-1.5

Passing Yds

180

Rushing Yds

168

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush TDs

0.9

Arizona State

Record 8-3 · ATS 6-5 · O/U 4-7

Model Score

23.9

Vegas Spread

+1.5

Passing Yds

206

Rushing Yds

209

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush TDs

1.6

Recent Game Log

Arizona

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Cincinnati	W 30-24	✓	u
Nov 8, 2025	vs Kansas	W 24-20	✗	u
Nov 1, 2025	@ Colorado	W 52-17	✓	o
Oct 18, 2025	@ Houston	L 28-31	✗	o
Oct 11, 2025	vs BYU	L 27-33	✗	o

Arizona State

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs West Virginia	W 25-23	✗	o
Nov 1, 2025	@ Iowa State	W 24-19	✓	u
Oct 25, 2025	vs Houston	L 16-24	✗	u
Oct 18, 2025	vs Texas Tech	W 26-22	✓	u
Oct 11, 2025	@ Utah	L 10-42	✗	o

Offensive Projections

Arizona

Pass Yards

180

Pass Attempts

35

Completions

19

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush Yards

168

Rush Att

35

Rush TDs

0.9

Turnovers

1.1

Arizona State

Pass Yards

206

Pass Attempts

32

Completions

20

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush Yards

209

Rush Att

40

Rush TDs

1.6

Turnovers

0.6

First Half

18.3

Arizona State -2.3

Second Half

21.7

Arizona State -4.5

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 71%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 48.5

Model Play Line 38.5

Model Projection 49.8

Edge OVER by 11.3

OVER 79% Confidence

OVER 79%

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

#6

Texas Tech

-1650

10-1 • ATS: 9-2 • O/U: 5-6

34.5

Raw: 21.4 • Adj: 34.5

-23.5

Nov 29 • 12:00PM ET

VS

O/U 53.5 Model: 55.5 (o)

West Virginia

+950

4-7 • ATS: 7-4 • O/U: 6-5

20.8

Raw: 25.0 • Adj: 20.8

+23.5

80.8%

19.2%

Spread Pick

West Virginia +32.5 (-318)(76% Cover Probability)

Home Dog Edge 9.8 pts

Total Pick

OVER 43.5 (-385)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 11.8 pts

Offensive Projections

Texas Tech

Pass Yards

210

Pass Attempts

38

Completions

22

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush Yards

183

Rush Att

35

Rush TDs

1.1

Turnovers

1.0

West Virginia

Pass Yards

167

Pass Attempts

28

Completions

17

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush Yards

276

Rush Att

47

Rush TDs

1.8

Turnovers

1.0

First Half

21.8

West Virginia -1.4

Second Half

24.5

West Virginia -2.1

Betting Overview

BEST BET · Spread · West Virginia +32.5 (-318) · LOW

Top recommended play highlighted below.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 12:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Dog

55.4% hit

ML Segment

Away Favorite

72.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

West Virginia +32.5 (-318)

+9.8

Model Prob: 76.1%
Market Implied: 76.1%

Conference Trend

Pick

34-37-1

47.9%

Total

OVER 43.5 (-385)

+11.8

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 79.4%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +3.8
Total Delta: +6.0
Home Residual: +2.2
Away Residual: +8.2
Raw Total: 46.4
Adjusted Total: 55.3

Team Form & Stats

Texas Tech

Record 10-1 · ATS 9-2 · O/U 5-6

#6

Model Score

34.5

Vegas Spread

-23.5

Passing Yds

210

Rushing Yds

183

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush TDs

1.1

West Virginia

Record 4-7 · ATS 7-4 · O/U 6-5

Model Score

20.8

Vegas Spread

+23.5

Passing Yds

167

Rushing Yds

276

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush TDs

1.8

Recent Game Log

Texas Tech

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs UCF	W 48-9	✓	o
Nov 8, 2025	vs BYU	W 29-7	✓	u
Nov 1, 2025	@ Kansas State	W 43-20	✓	o
Oct 25, 2025	vs Oklahoma State	W 42-0	✓	u
Oct 18, 2025	@ Arizona State	L 22-26	✗	u

West Virginia

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Arizona State	L 23-25	✓	o
Nov 8, 2025	vs Colorado	W 29-22	✓	u
Nov 1, 2025	@ Houston	W 45-35	✓	o
Oct 25, 2025	vs TCU	L 17-23	✓	u
Oct 18, 2025	@ UCF	L 13-45	✗	o

Offensive Projections

Texas Tech

Pass Yards

210

Pass Attempts

38

Completions

22

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush Yards

183

Rush Att

35

Rush TDs

1.1

Turnovers

1.0

West Virginia

Pass Yards

167

Pass Attempts

28

Completions

17

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush Yards

276

Rush Att

47

Rush TDs

1.8

Turnovers

1.0

First Half

21.8

West Virginia -1.4

Second Half

24.5

West Virginia -2.1

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 76%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

Recommended Bets

SPREAD

West Virginia +32.5 (-318)

76%

Edge

+9.8 pts

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 53.5

Model Play Line 43.5

Model Projection 55.3

Edge OVER by 11.8

OVER 79% Confidence

OVER 79%

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Ball State

+675

4-7 • ATS: 7-4 • O/U: 4-7

10.9

Raw: 18.4 • Adj: 10.9

+17.5

Nov 29 • 12:00PM ET

VS

O/U 41.5 Model: 36 (u)

Miami (OH)

-1050

6-5 • ATS: 7-4 • O/U: 6-5

24.9

Raw: 17.9 • Adj: 24.9

-17.5

19.6%

80.4%

Spread Pick

Ball State +27.5 (-406)(78% Cover Probability)

Away Dog Edge 3.5 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 52.5 (-404)(86% Hit Probability)

Edge 16.7 pts

Offensive Projections

Ball State

Pass Yards

194

Pass Attempts

38

Completions

20

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

159

Rush Att

33

Rush TDs

1.0

Turnovers

0.9

Miami (OH)

Pass Yards

206

Pass Attempts

39

Completions

20

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush Yards

168

Rush Att

32

Rush TDs

0.9

Turnovers

1.2

First Half

17.0

Ball State -0.4

Second Half

19.3

Ball State -0.1

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 12:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Dog

48.3% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

80.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Ball State +27.5 (-406)

+3.5

Model Prob: 78.4%
Market Implied: 80.2%

Conference Trend

Pick

37-31-1

54.4%

Total

UNDER 52.5 (-404)

+16.7

Model Prob: 86.4%
Market Implied: 80.2%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +5.5
Total Delta: -2.4
Home Residual: +2.4
Away Residual: -6.3
Raw Total: 36.4
Adjusted Total: 35.8

Team Form & Stats

Ball State

Record 4-7 · ATS 7-4 · O/U 4-7

Model Score

10.9

Vegas Spread

+17.5

Passing Yds

194

Rushing Yds

159

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush TDs

1.0

Miami (OH)

Record 6-5 · ATS 7-4 · O/U 6-5

Model Score

24.9

Vegas Spread

-17.5

Passing Yds

206

Rushing Yds

168

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush TDs

0.9

Recent Game Log

Ball State

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Eastern Michigan	L 9-24	✗	u
Nov 5, 2025	vs Kent State	W 17-13	✓	u
Oct 25, 2025	@ Northern Illinois	L 7-21	✗	u
Oct 18, 2025	vs Akron	W 42-28	✓	o
Oct 11, 2025	@ Western Michigan	L 0-42	✗	u

Miami (OH)

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 12, 2025	vs Toledo	L 3-24	✗	u
Nov 4, 2025	@ Ohio	L 20-24	✗	u
Oct 25, 2025	vs Western Michigan	W 26-17	✓	o
Oct 18, 2025	vs Eastern Michigan	W 44-30	✓	o
Oct 11, 2025	@ Akron	W 20-7	✓	u

Offensive Projections

Ball State

Pass Yards

194

Pass Attempts

38

Completions

20

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

159

Rush Att

33

Rush TDs

1.0

Turnovers

0.9

Miami (OH)

Pass Yards

206

Pass Attempts

39

Completions

20

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush Yards

168

Rush Att

32

Rush TDs

0.9

Turnovers

1.2

First Half

17.0

Ball State -0.4

Second Half

19.3

Ball State -0.1

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 78%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 86%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 41.5

Model Play Line 52.5

Model Projection 35.8

Edge UNDER by 16.7

UNDER 86% Confidence

14%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Toledo

-410

7-4 • ATS: 7-4 • O/U: 6-5

25.7

Raw: 20.0 • Adj: 25.7

-10

Nov 29 • 12:00PM ET

VS

O/U 44.5 Model: 48.5 (o)

Central Michigan

+320

7-4 • ATS: 8-3 • O/U: 7-4

23.0

Raw: 22.2 • Adj: 23.0

+10

56.5%

43.5%

Spread Pick

Central Michigan +19 (-302)(76% Cover Probability)

Home Dog Edge 7.3 pts

Total Pick

OVER 34.5 (-463)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 14.2 pts

Offensive Projections

Toledo

Pass Yards

215

Pass Attempts

38

Completions

21

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush Yards

181

Rush Att

36

Rush TDs

1.2

Turnovers

1.0

Central Michigan

Pass Yards

189

Pass Attempts

30

Completions

19

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

234

Rush Att

44

Rush TDs

1.6

Turnovers

1.1

First Half

19.9

Central Michigan -0.5

Second Half

22.3

Central Michigan -1.7

Betting Overview

BEST BET · Spread · Central Michigan +19 (-302) · LOW

Top recommended play highlighted below.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 12:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Dog

55.4% hit

ML Segment

Away Favorite

72.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Central Michigan +19 (-302)

+7.3

Model Prob: 76.1%
Market Implied: 75.1%

Conference Trend

Pick

37-31-1

54.4%

Total

OVER 34.5 (-463)

+14.2

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 82.2%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: -0.3
Total Delta: +5.8
Home Residual: +4.8
Away Residual: +4.3
Raw Total: 42.2
Adjusted Total: 48.7

Team Form & Stats

Toledo

Record 7-4 · ATS 7-4 · O/U 6-5

Model Score

25.7

Vegas Spread

-10

Passing Yds

215

Rushing Yds

181

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush TDs

1.2

Central Michigan

Record 7-4 · ATS 8-3 · O/U 7-4

Model Score

23.0

Vegas Spread

+10

Passing Yds

189

Rushing Yds

234

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush TDs

1.6

Recent Game Log

Toledo

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 12, 2025	@ Miami (OH)	W 24-3	✓	u
Nov 5, 2025	vs Northern Illinois	W 42-3	✓	o
Oct 25, 2025	@ Washington State	L 7-28	✗	u
Oct 18, 2025	vs Kent State	W 45-10	✓	o
Oct 11, 2025	@ Bowling Green	L 23-28	✗	o

Central Michigan

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 12, 2025	vs Buffalo	W 38-19	✓	o
Nov 1, 2025	@ Western Michigan	L 21-24	✓	o
Oct 25, 2025	vs Massachusetts	W 38-13	✓	o
Oct 18, 2025	@ Bowling Green	W 27-6	✓	u
Oct 4, 2025	@ Akron	L 22-28	✗	o

Offensive Projections

Toledo

Pass Yards

215

Pass Attempts

38

Completions

21

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush Yards

181

Rush Att

36

Rush TDs

1.2

Turnovers

1.0

Central Michigan

Pass Yards

189

Pass Attempts

30

Completions

19

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

234

Rush Att

44

Rush TDs

1.6

Turnovers

1.1

First Half

19.9

Central Michigan -0.5

Second Half

22.3

Central Michigan -1.7

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 76%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

Recommended Bets

TOTAL

OVER 34.5 (-463)

79%

Edge

+14.2 pts

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 44.5

Model Play Line 34.5

Model Projection 48.7

Edge OVER by 14.2

OVER 79% Confidence

OVER 79%

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

East Carolina

-258

7-4 • ATS: 6-4-1 • O/U: 6-5

33.1

Raw: 23.9 • Adj: 33.1

-7

Nov 29 • 12:00PM ET

VS

O/U 65.5 Model: 64 (u)

Florida Atlantic

+210

4-7 • ATS: 7-4 • O/U: 7-4

31.1

Raw: 24.5 • Adj: 31.1

+7

54.5%

45.5%

Spread Pick

Florida Atlantic +16.5 (-285)(77% Cover Probability)

Home Dog Edge 5.0 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 76.5 (-318)(68% Hit Probability)

Edge 12.3 pts

Offensive Projections

East Carolina

Pass Yards

237

Pass Attempts

36

Completions

21

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush Yards

219

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

1.4

Turnovers

1.4

Florida Atlantic

Pass Yards

207

Pass Attempts

35

Completions

20

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush Yards

246

Rush Att

41

Rush TDs

1.4

Turnovers

1.2

First Half

22.5

Florida Atlantic -1.1

Second Half

25.9

East Carolina -0.5

Betting Overview

BEST BET · Spread · Florida Atlantic +16.5 (-285) · LOW

Top recommended play highlighted below.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 12:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Dog

55.4% hit

ML Segment

Away Favorite

72.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: LEAN

Spread

Florida Atlantic +16.5 (-285)

+5.0

Model Prob: 77.4%
Market Implied: 74.0%

Conference Trend

Pick

35-31-2

53.0%

Total

UNDER 76.5 (-318)

+12.3

Model Prob: 68.2%
Market Implied: 76.1%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +0.2
Total Delta: +5.6
Home Residual: +4.2
Away Residual: +4.6
Raw Total: 48.4
Adjusted Total: 64.2

Team Form & Stats

East Carolina

Record 7-4 · ATS 6-4-1 · O/U 6-5

Model Score

33.1

Vegas Spread

-7

Passing Yds

237

Rushing Yds

219

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush TDs

1.4

Florida Atlantic

Record 4-7 · ATS 7-4 · O/U 7-4

Model Score

31.1

Vegas Spread

+7

Passing Yds

207

Rushing Yds

246

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush TDs

1.4

Recent Game Log

East Carolina

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Memphis	W 31-27	✓	o
Nov 8, 2025	vs Charlotte	W 48-22	✗	o
Nov 1, 2025	@ Temple	W 45-14	✓	o
Oct 16, 2025	vs Tulsa	W 41-27	✗	o
Oct 9, 2025	@ Tulane	L 19-26	✗	u

Florida Atlantic

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Tulane	L 24-35	✓	u
Oct 25, 2025	@ Navy	L 32-42	✓	o
Oct 18, 2025	@ South Florida	L 13-48	✗	u
Oct 11, 2025	vs UAB	W 53-33	✓	o
Oct 4, 2025	@ Rice	W 27-21	✓	u

Offensive Projections

East Carolina

Pass Yards

237

Pass Attempts

36

Completions

21

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush Yards

219

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

1.4

Turnovers

1.4

Florida Atlantic

Pass Yards

207

Pass Attempts

35

Completions

20

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush Yards

246

Rush Att

41

Rush TDs

1.4

Turnovers

1.2

First Half

22.5

Florida Atlantic -1.1

Second Half

25.9

East Carolina -0.5

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 77%

Total Confidence LEAN

Model Probability: 68%

Recommended Bets

SPREAD

Florida Atlantic +16.5 (-285)

77%

Edge

+5.0 pts

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 65.5

Model Play Line 76.5

Model Projection 64.2

Edge UNDER by 12.3

UNDER 68% Confidence

OVER 32%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Clemson

+120

6-5 • ATS: 4-7 • O/U: 4-7

25.9

Raw: 22.0 • Adj: 25.9

+2.5

Nov 29 • 12:00PM ET

VS

O/U 46.5 Model: 49 (o)

South Carolina

-142

4-7 • ATS: 6-5 • O/U: 5-6

23.3

Raw: 20.8 • Adj: 23.3

-2.5

56.4%

43.6%

Spread Pick

Clemson +12 (-462)(77% Cover Probability)

Home Favorite Edge 0.1 pts

Total Pick

OVER 36.5 (-349)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 12.7 pts

Offensive Projections

Clemson

Pass Yards

217

Pass Attempts

40

Completions

22

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush Yards

206

Rush Att

37

Rush TDs

1.2

Turnovers

0.7

South Carolina

Pass Yards

196

Pass Attempts

31

Completions

19

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

211

Rush Att

44

Rush TDs

1.4

Turnovers

1.1

First Half

20.8

Clemson -0.8

Second Half

22.0

Clemson -0.4

Betting Overview

BEST BET · Spread · Clemson +12 (-462) · LOW

Top recommended play highlighted below.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 12:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Favorite

55.7% hit

ML Segment

Away Dog

40.4% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Clemson +12 (-462)

-0.1

Model Prob: 77.4%
Market Implied: 82.2%

Conference Trend

Pick

30-28-4

51.7%

Opponent

36-37-3

49.3%

Total

OVER 36.5 (-349)

+12.7

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 77.7%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: -2.2
Total Delta: +5.2
Home Residual: +2.4
Away Residual: +6.2
Raw Total: 42.8
Adjusted Total: 49.2

Team Form & Stats

Clemson

Record 6-5 · ATS 4-7 · O/U 4-7

Model Score

25.9

Vegas Spread

+2.5

Passing Yds

217

Rushing Yds

206

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush TDs

1.2

South Carolina

Record 4-7 · ATS 6-5 · O/U 5-6

Model Score

23.3

Vegas Spread

-2.5

Passing Yds

196

Rushing Yds

211

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush TDs

1.4

Recent Game Log

Clemson

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 14, 2025	@ Louisville	W 20-19	✓	u
Nov 8, 2025	vs Florida State	W 24-10	✓	u
Nov 1, 2025	vs Duke	L 45-46	✗	o
Oct 18, 2025	vs SMU	L 24-35	✗	o
Oct 11, 2025	@ Boston College	W 41-10	✓	u

South Carolina

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Texas A&M	L 30-31	✓	o
Nov 1, 2025	@ Ole Miss	L 14-30	✗	u
Oct 25, 2025	vs Alabama	L 22-29	✓	o
Oct 18, 2025	vs Oklahoma	L 7-26	✗	u
Oct 11, 2025	@ LSU	L 10-20	✗	u

Offensive Projections

Clemson

Pass Yards

217

Pass Attempts

40

Completions

22

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush Yards

206

Rush Att

37

Rush TDs

1.2

Turnovers

0.7

South Carolina

Pass Yards

196

Pass Attempts

31

Completions

19

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

211

Rush Att

44

Rush TDs

1.4

Turnovers

1.1

First Half

20.8

Clemson -0.8

Second Half

22.0

Clemson -0.4

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 77%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

Recommended Bets

SPREAD

Clemson +12 (-462)

77%

Edge

-0.1 pts

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 46.5

Model Play Line 36.5

Model Projection 49.2

Edge OVER by 12.7

OVER 79% Confidence

OVER 79%

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Iowa State

-600

7-4 • ATS: 6-5 • O/U: 4-6

26.8

Raw: 23.8 • Adj: 26.8

-14

Nov 29 • 12:00PM ET

VS

O/U 45.5 Model: 40.5 (u)

Oklahoma State

+440

1-10 • ATS: 4-7 • O/U: 5-6

13.7

Raw: 19.4 • Adj: 13.7

+14

79.2%

20.8%

Spread Pick

Oklahoma State +23.5 (-341)(77% Cover Probability)

Home Dog Edge 0.9 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 56.5 (-369)(83% Hit Probability)

Edge 15.9 pts

Offensive Projections

Iowa State

Pass Yards

202

Pass Attempts

32

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush Yards

218

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

0.7

Oklahoma State

Pass Yards

218

Pass Attempts

39

Completions

23

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush Yards

195

Rush Att

38

Rush TDs

1.3

Turnovers

1.4

First Half

20.2

Iowa State -2.8

Second Half

22.9

Iowa State -1.7

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 12:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Dog

55.4% hit

ML Segment

Away Favorite

72.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Oklahoma State +23.5 (-341)

+0.9

Model Prob: 77.4%
Market Implied: 77.3%

Conference Trend

Pick

34-37-1

47.9%

Total

UNDER 56.5 (-369)

+15.9

Model Prob: 82.6%
Market Implied: 78.7%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +4.3
Total Delta: -3.3
Home Residual: -5.7
Away Residual: +0.8
Raw Total: 43.1
Adjusted Total: 40.6

Team Form & Stats

Iowa State

Record 7-4 · ATS 6-5 · O/U 4-6

Model Score

26.8

Vegas Spread

-14

Passing Yds

202

Rushing Yds

218

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush TDs

1.5

Oklahoma State

Record 1-10 · ATS 4-7 · O/U 5-6

Model Score

13.7

Vegas Spread

+14

Passing Yds

218

Rushing Yds

195

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush TDs

1.3

Recent Game Log

Iowa State

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 8, 2025	@ TCU	W 20-17	✓	u
Nov 1, 2025	vs Arizona State	L 19-24	✗	u
Oct 25, 2025	vs BYU	L 27-41	✗	o
Oct 11, 2025	@ Colorado	L 17-24	✗	u
Oct 4, 2025	@ Cincinnati	L 30-38	✗	o

Oklahoma State

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Kansas State	L 6-14	✓	u
Nov 1, 2025	@ Kansas	L 21-38	✓	o
Oct 25, 2025	@ Texas Tech	L 0-42	✗	u
Oct 18, 2025	vs Cincinnati	L 17-49	✗	o
Oct 11, 2025	vs Houston	L 17-39	✗	o

Offensive Projections

Iowa State

Pass Yards

202

Pass Attempts

32

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush Yards

218

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

0.7

Oklahoma State

Pass Yards

218

Pass Attempts

39

Completions

23

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush Yards

195

Rush Att

38

Rush TDs

1.3

Turnovers

1.4

First Half

20.2

Iowa State -2.8

Second Half

22.9

Iowa State -1.7

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 77%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 83%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 45.5

Model Play Line 56.5

Model Projection 40.6

Edge UNDER by 15.9

UNDER 83% Confidence

17%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Kentucky

+124

5-6 • ATS: 5-6 • O/U: 7-4

17.8

Raw: 14.0 • Adj: 17.8

+3

Nov 29 • 12:00PM ET

VS

O/U 46.5 Model: 41.5 (u)

Louisville

-148

7-4 • ATS: 3-8 • O/U: 5-6

23.6

Raw: 27.4 • Adj: 23.6

-3

36.2%

63.8%

Spread Pick

Louisville +6.5 (-426)(64% Cover Probability)

Home Favorite Edge 2.8 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 56.5 (-317)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 15.2 pts

Offensive Projections

Kentucky

Pass Yards

147

Pass Attempts

32

Completions

16

Pass TDs

0.7

Rush Yards

188

Rush Att

40

Rush TDs

1.0

Turnovers

1.2

Louisville

Pass Yards

179

Pass Attempts

31

Completions

17

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush Yards

241

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

1.7

Turnovers

0.7

First Half

19.3

Louisville -5.9

Second Half

22.0

Louisville -7.4

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 12:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Favorite

55.7% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

80.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Louisville +6.5 (-426)

+2.8

Model Prob: 64.2%
Market Implied: 81.0%

Conference Trend

Pick

36-37-3

49.3%

Opponent

30-28-4

51.7%

Total

UNDER 56.5 (-317)

+15.2

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 76.0%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: -3.6
Total Delta: -1.9
Home Residual: -4.2
Away Residual: +1.3
Raw Total: 41.4
Adjusted Total: 41.3

Team Form & Stats

Kentucky

Record 5-6 · ATS 5-6 · O/U 7-4

Model Score

17.8

Vegas Spread

+3

Passing Yds

147

Rushing Yds

188

Pass TDs

0.7

Rush TDs

1.0

Louisville

Record 7-4 · ATS 3-8 · O/U 5-6

Model Score

23.6

Vegas Spread

-3

Passing Yds

179

Rushing Yds

241

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush TDs

1.7

Recent Game Log

Kentucky

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 8, 2025	vs Florida	W 38-7	✓	o
Nov 1, 2025	@ Auburn	W 10-3	✗	u
Oct 25, 2025	vs Tennessee	L 34-56	✗	o
Oct 18, 2025	vs Texas	L 13-16	✓	u
Oct 4, 2025	@ Georgia	L 14-35	✗	u

Louisville

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 14, 2025	vs Clemson	L 19-20	✗	u
Nov 8, 2025	vs California	L 26-29	✗	o
Nov 1, 2025	@ Virginia Tech	W 28-16	✓	u
Oct 25, 2025	vs Boston College	W 38-24	✗	o
Oct 17, 2025	@ Miami	W 24-21	✓	u

Offensive Projections

Kentucky

Pass Yards

147

Pass Attempts

32

Completions

16

Pass TDs

0.7

Rush Yards

188

Rush Att

40

Rush TDs

1.0

Turnovers

1.2

Louisville

Pass Yards

179

Pass Attempts

31

Completions

17

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush Yards

241

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

1.7

Turnovers

0.7

First Half

19.3

Louisville -5.9

Second Half

22.0

Louisville -7.4

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 64%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 46.5

Model Play Line 56.5

Model Projection 41.3

Edge UNDER by 15.2

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Colorado

+600

3-8 • ATS: 4-7 • O/U: 5-6

14.4

Raw: 18.2 • Adj: 14.4

+17

Nov 29 • 12:00PM ET

VS

O/U 49.5 Model: 46 (u)

Kansas State

-900

5-6 • ATS: 5-6 • O/U: 7-4

31.8

Raw: 24.2 • Adj: 31.8

-17

12.9%

87.1%

Spread Pick

Kansas State -8 (-300)(76% Cover Probability)

Home Favorite Edge 0.4 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 59.5 (-348)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 13.3 pts

Offensive Projections

Colorado

Pass Yards

198

Pass Attempts

37

Completions

20

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

160

Rush Att

35

Rush TDs

1.0

Turnovers

0.9

Kansas State

Pass Yards

227

Pass Attempts

39

Completions

22

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush Yards

211

Rush Att

36

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

1.0

First Half

19.4

Kansas State -2.4

Second Half

22.9

Kansas State -3.5

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 12:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Favorite

55.7% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

80.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Kansas State -8 (-300)

+0.4

Model Prob: 76.1%
Market Implied: 75.0%

Conference Trend

Pick

34-37-1

47.9%

Total

UNDER 59.5 (-348)

+13.3

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 77.7%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +6.0
Total Delta: +0.9
Home Residual: +5.7
Away Residual: -4.4
Raw Total: 42.4
Adjusted Total: 46.2

Team Form & Stats

Colorado

Record 3-8 · ATS 4-7 · O/U 5-6

Model Score

14.4

Vegas Spread

+17

Passing Yds

198

Rushing Yds

160

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush TDs

1.0

Kansas State

Record 5-6 · ATS 5-6 · O/U 7-4

Model Score

31.8

Vegas Spread

-17

Passing Yds

227

Rushing Yds

211

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush TDs

1.5

Recent Game Log

Colorado

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 8, 2025	@ West Virginia	L 22-29	✗	u
Nov 1, 2025	vs Arizona	L 17-52	✗	o
Oct 25, 2025	@ Utah	L 7-53	✗	o
Oct 11, 2025	vs Iowa State	W 24-17	✓	u
Oct 4, 2025	@ TCU	L 21-35	✓	u

Kansas State

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Oklahoma State	W 14-6	✗	u
Nov 1, 2025	vs Texas Tech	L 20-43	✗	o
Oct 25, 2025	@ Kansas	W 42-17	✓	o
Oct 11, 2025	vs TCU	W 41-28	✓	o
Oct 4, 2025	@ Baylor	L 34-35	✓	o

Offensive Projections

Colorado

Pass Yards

198

Pass Attempts

37

Completions

20

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

160

Rush Att

35

Rush TDs

1.0

Turnovers

0.9

Kansas State

Pass Yards

227

Pass Attempts

39

Completions

22

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush Yards

211

Rush Att

36

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

1.0

First Half

19.4

Kansas State -2.4

Second Half

22.9

Kansas State -3.5

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 76%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 49.5

Model Play Line 59.5

Model Projection 46.2

Edge UNDER by 13.3

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

#25

Houston

+120

8-3 • ATS: 7-4 • O/U: 7-4

21.6

Raw: 11.0 • Adj: 21.6

+2.5

Nov 29 • 12:00PM ET

VS

O/U 59.5 Model: 56 (u)

Baylor

-142

5-6 • ATS: 2-9 • O/U: 6-5

34.3

Raw: 45.8 • Adj: 34.3

-2.5

25.4%

74.6%

Spread Pick

Baylor +7.5 (-329)(68% Cover Probability)

Home Favorite Edge 10.1 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 69.5 (-319)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 13.6 pts

Offensive Projections

Houston

Pass Yards

196

Pass Attempts

41

Completions

22

Pass TDs

0.7

Rush Yards

174

Rush Att

36

Rush TDs

0.6

Turnovers

2.0

Baylor

Pass Yards

161

Pass Attempts

31

Completions

16

Pass TDs

2.7

Rush Yards

137

Rush Att

29

Rush TDs

3.1

Turnovers

0.7

First Half

28.0

Baylor -17.4

Second Half

28.8

Baylor -17.4

Betting Overview

BEST BET · Spread · Baylor +7.5 (-329) · LOW

Top recommended play highlighted below.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 12:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Favorite

55.7% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

80.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Baylor +7.5 (-329)

+10.1

Model Prob: 68.0%
Market Implied: 76.7%

Conference Trend

Pick

34-37-1

47.9%

Total

UNDER 69.5 (-319)

+13.6

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 76.1%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: -6.0
Total Delta: -1.7
Home Residual: -7.7
Away Residual: +4.8
Raw Total: 56.8
Adjusted Total: 55.9

Team Form & Stats

Houston

Record 8-3 · ATS 7-4 · O/U 7-4

#25

Model Score

21.6

Vegas Spread

+2.5

Passing Yds

196

Rushing Yds

174

Pass TDs

0.7

Rush TDs

0.6

Baylor

Record 5-6 · ATS 2-9 · O/U 6-5

Model Score

34.3

Vegas Spread

-2.5

Passing Yds

161

Rushing Yds

137

Pass TDs

2.7

Rush TDs

3.1

Recent Game Log

Houston

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 7, 2025	@ UCF	W 30-27	✓	o
Nov 1, 2025	vs West Virginia	L 35-45	✗	o
Oct 25, 2025	@ Arizona State	W 24-16	✓	u
Oct 18, 2025	vs Arizona	W 31-28	✓	o
Oct 11, 2025	@ Oklahoma State	W 39-17	✓	o

Baylor

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Utah	L 28-55	✗	o
Nov 1, 2025	vs UCF	W 30-3	✓	u
Oct 25, 2025	@ Cincinnati	L 20-41	✗	u
Oct 18, 2025	@ TCU	L 36-42	✗	o
Oct 4, 2025	vs Kansas State	W 35-34	✗	o

Offensive Projections

Houston

Pass Yards

196

Pass Attempts

41

Completions

22

Pass TDs

0.7

Rush Yards

174

Rush Att

36

Rush TDs

0.6

Turnovers

2.0

Baylor

Pass Yards

161

Pass Attempts

31

Completions

16

Pass TDs

2.7

Rush Yards

137

Rush Att

29

Rush TDs

3.1

Turnovers

0.7

First Half

28.0

Baylor -17.4

Second Half

28.8

Baylor -17.4

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 68%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

Recommended Bets

SPREAD

Baylor +7.5 (-329)

68%

Edge

+10.1 pts

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 59.5

Model Play Line 69.5

Model Projection 55.9

Edge UNDER by 13.6

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

#14

Miami

-270

9-2 • ATS: 6-5 • O/U: 4-7

29.5

Raw: 29.6 • Adj: 29.5

-6.5

Nov 29 • 12:00PM ET

VS

O/U 51 Model: 56.5 (o)

Pittsburgh

+220

8-3 • ATS: 8-3 • O/U: 9-2

26.9

Raw: 22.5 • Adj: 26.9

+6.5

56.3%

43.7%

Spread Pick

Pittsburgh +16 (-307)(77% Cover Probability)

Home Dog Edge 3.9 pts

Total Pick

OVER 40.5 (-360)(84% Hit Probability)

Edge 15.8 pts

Offensive Projections

Miami

Pass Yards

294

Pass Attempts

43

Completions

25

Pass TDs

2.2

Rush Yards

177

Rush Att

33

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

1.0

Pittsburgh

Pass Yards

253

Pass Attempts

48

Completions

26

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush Yards

151

Rush Att

29

Rush TDs

0.9

Turnovers

1.1

First Half

24.5

Miami -3.7

Second Half

27.6

Miami -3.4

Betting Overview

BEST BET · Total · OVER 40.5 (-360) · CONFIDENT

Top recommended play highlighted below.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 12:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Dog

55.4% hit

ML Segment

Away Favorite

72.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Pittsburgh +16 (-307)

+3.9

Model Prob: 77.4%
Market Implied: 75.4%

Conference Trend

Pick

36-37-3

49.3%

Total

OVER 40.5 (-360)

+15.8

Model Prob: 84.5%
Market Implied: 78.3%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: -4.4
Total Delta: +4.5
Home Residual: +6.7
Away Residual: +0.1
Raw Total: 52.1
Adjusted Total: 56.3

Team Form & Stats

Miami

Record 9-2 · ATS 6-5 · O/U 4-7

#14

Model Score

29.5

Vegas Spread

-6.5

Passing Yds

294

Rushing Yds

177

Pass TDs

2.2

Rush TDs

1.5

Pittsburgh

Record 8-3 · ATS 8-3 · O/U 9-2

Model Score

26.9

Vegas Spread

+6.5

Passing Yds

253

Rushing Yds

151

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush TDs

0.9

Recent Game Log

Miami

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs NC State	W 41-7	✓	u
Nov 8, 2025	vs Syracuse	W 38-10	✗	o
Nov 1, 2025	@ SMU	L 20-26	✗	u
Oct 25, 2025	vs Stanford	W 42-7	✓	o
Oct 17, 2025	vs Louisville	L 21-24	✗	u

Pittsburgh

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Notre Dame	L 15-37	✗	u
Nov 1, 2025	@ Stanford	W 35-20	✓	o
Oct 25, 2025	vs NC State	W 53-34	✓	o
Oct 18, 2025	@ Syracuse	W 30-13	✓	u
Oct 11, 2025	@ Florida State	W 34-31	✓	o

Offensive Projections

Miami

Pass Yards

294

Pass Attempts

43

Completions

25

Pass TDs

2.2

Rush Yards

177

Rush Att

33

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

1.0

Pittsburgh

Pass Yards

253

Pass Attempts

48

Completions

26

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush Yards

151

Rush Att

29

Rush TDs

0.9

Turnovers

1.1

First Half

24.5

Miami -3.7

Second Half

27.6

Miami -3.4

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 77%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 84%

Recommended Bets

TOTAL

OVER 40.5 (-360)

84%

Edge

+15.8 pts

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 51

Model Play Line 40.5

Model Projection 56.3

Edge OVER by 15.8

OVER 84% Confidence

OVER 84%

16%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

#1

Ohio State

-395

11-0 • ATS: 9-1-1 • O/U: 4-7

28.2

Raw: 23.8 • Adj: 28.2

-10

Nov 29 • 12:00PM ET

VS

O/U 44.5 Model: 47.5 (o)

#18

Michigan

+310

9-2 • ATS: 4-7 • O/U: 5-6

19.3

Raw: 20.0 • Adj: 19.3

+10

71.1%

28.9%

Spread Pick

Michigan +19.5 (-317)(77% Cover Probability)

Home Dog Edge 1.1 pts

Total Pick

OVER 34.5 (-364)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 13.0 pts

Offensive Projections

Ohio State

Pass Yards

203

Pass Attempts

29

Completions

17

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush Yards

195

Rush Att

36

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

0.7

Michigan

Pass Yards

126

Pass Attempts

24

Completions

15

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

218

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

1.1

First Half

20.4

Ohio State -1.0

Second Half

23.5

Ohio State -2.7

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 12:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Dog

55.4% hit

ML Segment

Away Favorite

72.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Michigan +19.5 (-317)

+1.1

Model Prob: 77.4%
Market Implied: 76.0%

Conference Trend

Pick

40-33-2

54.8%

Total

OVER 34.5 (-364)

+13.0

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 78.4%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +3.4
Total Delta: +3.5
Home Residual: +0.0
Away Residual: +5.1
Raw Total: 43.8
Adjusted Total: 47.5

Team Form & Stats

Ohio State

Record 11-0 · ATS 9-1-1 · O/U 4-7

#1

Model Score

28.2

Vegas Spread

-10

Passing Yds

203

Rushing Yds

195

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush TDs

1.5

Michigan

Record 9-2 · ATS 4-7 · O/U 5-6

#18

Model Score

19.3

Vegas Spread

+10

Passing Yds

126

Rushing Yds

218

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush TDs

1.5

Recent Game Log

Ohio State

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs UCLA	W 48-10	✓	o
Nov 8, 2025	@ Purdue	W 34-10	✗	u
Nov 1, 2025	vs Penn State	W 38-14	✓	o
Oct 18, 2025	@ Wisconsin	W 34-0	✓	u
Oct 11, 2025	@ Illinois	W 34-16	✓	u

Michigan

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Northwestern	W 24-22	✗	o
Nov 1, 2025	vs Purdue	W 21-16	✗	u
Oct 25, 2025	@ Michigan State	W 31-20	✗	o
Oct 18, 2025	vs Washington	W 24-7	✓	u
Oct 11, 2025	@ USC	L 13-31	✗	u

Offensive Projections

Ohio State

Pass Yards

203

Pass Attempts

29

Completions

17

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush Yards

195

Rush Att

36

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

0.7

Michigan

Pass Yards

126

Pass Attempts

24

Completions

15

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

218

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

1.1

First Half

20.4

Ohio State -1.0

Second Half

23.5

Ohio State -2.7

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 77%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 44.5

Model Play Line 34.5

Model Projection 47.5

Edge OVER by 13.0

OVER 79% Confidence

OVER 79%

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Florida International

-395

6-5 • ATS: 7-4 • O/U: 5-6

29.1

Raw: 23.0 • Adj: 29.1

-9.5

Nov 29 • 1:00PM ET

VS

O/U 51.5 Model: 47 (u)

Sam Houston

+310

2-9 • ATS: 3-8 • O/U: 7-4

17.7

Raw: 14.3 • Adj: 17.7

+9.5

78.5%

21.5%

Spread Pick

Sam Houston +19 (-304)(77% Cover Probability)

Away Favorite Edge 2.0 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 61.5 (-362)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 14.7 pts

Offensive Projections

Florida International

Pass Yards

199

Pass Attempts

33

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush Yards

190

Rush Att

36

Rush TDs

1.4

Turnovers

1.1

Sam Houston

Pass Yards

130

Pass Attempts

33

Completions

17

Pass TDs

0.8

Rush Yards

218

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

1.1

Turnovers

1.0

First Half

17.2

Florida International -4.2

Second Half

20.1

Florida International -4.5

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 1:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Favorite

70.4% hit

ML Segment

Away Favorite

72.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Sam Houston +19 (-304)

-2.0

Model Prob: 77.4%
Market Implied: 75.2%

Conference Trend

Pick

41-21-1

66.1%

Total

UNDER 61.5 (-362)

+14.7

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 78.4%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +2.7
Total Delta: +1.1
Home Residual: -1.2
Away Residual: +3.1
Raw Total: 37.3
Adjusted Total: 46.8

Team Form & Stats

Florida International

Record 6-5 · ATS 7-4 · O/U 5-6

Model Score

29.1

Vegas Spread

-9.5

Passing Yds

199

Rushing Yds

190

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush TDs

1.4

Sam Houston

Record 2-9 · ATS 3-8 · O/U 7-4

Model Score

17.7

Vegas Spread

+9.5

Passing Yds

130

Rushing Yds

218

Pass TDs

0.8

Rush TDs

1.1

Recent Game Log

Florida International

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Liberty	W 34-27	✓	o
Nov 8, 2025	@ Middle Tennessee	W 56-30	✓	o
Oct 29, 2025	@ Missouri State	L 21-28	✗	u
Oct 21, 2025	vs Kennesaw State	L 26-45	✗	o
Oct 4, 2025	@ UConn	L 10-51	✗	o

Sam Houston

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Delaware	W 26-23	✓	u
Nov 8, 2025	@ Oregon State	W 21-17	✓	u
Oct 31, 2025	@ Louisiana Tech	L 14-55	✗	o
Oct 15, 2025	vs UTEP	L 17-35	✗	o
Oct 9, 2025	vs Jacksonville State	L 27-29	✓	o

Offensive Projections

Florida International

Pass Yards

199

Pass Attempts

33

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush Yards

190

Rush Att

36

Rush TDs

1.4

Turnovers

1.1

Sam Houston

Pass Yards

130

Pass Attempts

33

Completions

17

Pass TDs

0.8

Rush Yards

218

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

1.1

Turnovers

1.0

First Half

17.2

Florida International -4.2

Second Half

20.1

Florida International -4.5

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 77%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 51.5

Model Play Line 61.5

Model Projection 46.8

Edge UNDER by 14.7

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

UTEP

+164

2-9 • ATS: 3-8 • O/U: 6-5

21.9

Raw: 14.8 • Adj: 21.9

+4

Nov 29 • 1:00PM ET

VS

O/U 55.5 Model: 49 (u)

Delaware

-198

5-6 • ATS: 3-8 • O/U: 5-6

27.0

Raw: 25.2 • Adj: 27.0

-4

36.3%

63.7%

Spread Pick

Delaware +6 (-441)(58% Cover Probability)

Home Favorite Edge 1.1 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 64.5 (-291)(77% Hit Probability)

Edge 15.5 pts

Offensive Projections

UTEP

Pass Yards

147

Pass Attempts

31

Completions

16

Pass TDs

0.8

Rush Yards

184

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

0.9

Turnovers

1.1

Delaware

Pass Yards

215

Pass Attempts

37

Completions

20

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush Yards

203

Rush Att

36

Rush TDs

1.6

Turnovers

0.7

First Half

18.1

Delaware -4.1

Second Half

22.1

Delaware -6.3

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 1:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Favorite

55.7% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

80.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: LEAN

Spread

Delaware +6 (-441)

+1.1

Model Prob: 58.1%
Market Implied: 81.5%

Conference Trend

Opponent

41-21-1

66.1%

Total

UNDER 64.5 (-291)

+15.5

Model Prob: 77.2%
Market Implied: 74.4%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: -3.5
Total Delta: -0.4
Home Residual: -3.0
Away Residual: +2.5
Raw Total: 40.1
Adjusted Total: 49.0

Team Form & Stats

UTEP

Record 2-9 · ATS 3-8 · O/U 6-5

Model Score

21.9

Vegas Spread

+4

Passing Yds

147

Rushing Yds

184

Pass TDs

0.8

Rush TDs

0.9

Delaware

Record 5-6 · ATS 3-8 · O/U 5-6

Model Score

27.0

Vegas Spread

-4

Passing Yds

215

Rushing Yds

203

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush TDs

1.6

Recent Game Log

UTEP

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Missouri State	L 24-38	✗	o
Nov 8, 2025	vs Jacksonville State	L 27-30	✗	o
Oct 28, 2025	@ Kennesaw State	L 20-33	✗	o
Oct 15, 2025	@ Sam Houston	W 35-17	✓	o
Oct 8, 2025	vs Liberty	L 8-19	✗	u

Delaware

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Sam Houston	L 23-26	✗	u
Nov 8, 2025	vs Louisiana Tech	W 25-24	✓	u
Nov 1, 2025	@ Liberty	L 30-59	✗	o
Oct 30, 2025	vs Middle Tennessee	W 31-28	✗	o
Oct 15, 2025	@ Jacksonville State	L 25-38	✗	o

Offensive Projections

UTEP

Pass Yards

147

Pass Attempts

31

Completions

16

Pass TDs

0.8

Rush Yards

184

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

0.9

Turnovers

1.1

Delaware

Pass Yards

215

Pass Attempts

37

Completions

20

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush Yards

203

Rush Att

36

Rush TDs

1.6

Turnovers

0.7

First Half

18.1

Delaware -4.1

Second Half

22.1

Delaware -6.3

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 58%

Total Confidence LEAN

Model Probability: 77%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 55.5

Model Play Line 64.5

Model Projection 49.0

Edge UNDER by 15.5

UNDER 77% Confidence

23%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

UCF

+750

5-6 • ATS: 4-7 • O/U: 5-6

14.4

Raw: 21.9 • Adj: 14.4

+17.5

Nov 29 • 1:00PM ET

VS

O/U 46.5 Model: 44 (u)

#11

BYU

-1200

10-1 • ATS: 8-3 • O/U: 5-6

29.9

Raw: 23.3 • Adj: 29.9

-17.5

16.8%

83.2%

Spread Pick

BYU -7.5 (-337)(78% Cover Probability)

Away Dog Edge 2.0 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 56.5 (-365)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 12.3 pts

Offensive Projections

UCF

Pass Yards

142

Pass Attempts

26

Completions

14

Pass TDs

0.9

Rush Yards

279

Rush Att

47

Rush TDs

1.8

Turnovers

1.0

BYU

Pass Yards

238

Pass Attempts

33

Completions

21

Pass TDs

1.7

Rush Yards

210

Rush Att

40

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

1.1

First Half

20.5

BYU -0.7

Second Half

24.6

BYU -0.8

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 1:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Dog

48.3% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

80.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

BYU -7.5 (-337)

-2.0

Model Prob: 78.4%
Market Implied: 77.1%

Conference Trend

Pick

34-37-1

47.9%

Total

UNDER 56.5 (-365)

+12.3

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 78.5%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +6.0
Total Delta: -1.3
Home Residual: +3.9
Away Residual: -5.9
Raw Total: 45.2
Adjusted Total: 44.2

Team Form & Stats

UCF

Record 5-6 · ATS 4-7 · O/U 5-6

Model Score

14.4

Vegas Spread

+17.5

Passing Yds

142

Rushing Yds

279

Pass TDs

0.9

Rush TDs

1.8

BYU

Record 10-1 · ATS 8-3 · O/U 5-6

#11

Model Score

29.9

Vegas Spread

-17.5

Passing Yds

238

Rushing Yds

210

Pass TDs

1.7

Rush TDs

1.5

Recent Game Log

UCF

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Texas Tech	L 9-48	✗	o
Nov 7, 2025	vs Houston	L 27-30	✗	o
Nov 1, 2025	@ Baylor	L 3-30	✗	u
Oct 18, 2025	vs West Virginia	W 45-13	✓	o
Oct 11, 2025	@ Cincinnati	L 11-20	✓	u

BYU

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs TCU	W 44-13	✓	o
Nov 8, 2025	@ Texas Tech	L 7-29	✗	u
Oct 25, 2025	@ Iowa State	W 41-27	✓	o
Oct 18, 2025	vs Utah	W 24-21	✓	u
Oct 11, 2025	@ Arizona	W 33-27	✓	o

Offensive Projections

UCF

Pass Yards

142

Pass Attempts

26

Completions

14

Pass TDs

0.9

Rush Yards

279

Rush Att

47

Rush TDs

1.8

Turnovers

1.0

BYU

Pass Yards

238

Pass Attempts

33

Completions

21

Pass TDs

1.7

Rush Yards

210

Rush Att

40

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

1.1

First Half

20.5

BYU -0.7

Second Half

24.6

BYU -0.8

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 78%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 46.5

Model Play Line 56.5

Model Projection 44.2

Edge UNDER by 12.3

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Georgia Southern

+260

5-6 • ATS: 5-5-1 • O/U: 7-4

25.9

Raw: 20.9 • Adj: 25.9

+9

Nov 29 • 1:30PM ET

VS

O/U 63.5 Model: 60.5 (u)

Marshall

-325

5-6 • ATS: 7-4 • O/U: 6-5

34.7

Raw: 20.4 • Adj: 34.7

-9

29.3%

70.7%

Spread Pick

Marshall -2 (-311)(73% Cover Probability)

Away Dog Edge 0.2 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 73.5 (-308)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 12.9 pts

Offensive Projections

Georgia Southern

Pass Yards

200

Pass Attempts

37

Completions

20

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush Yards

191

Rush Att

39

Rush TDs

1.2

Turnovers

1.0

Marshall

Pass Yards

171

Pass Attempts

37

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

198

Rush Att

38

Rush TDs

1.2

Turnovers

0.7

First Half

19.9

Marshall -0.1

Second Half

21.3

Georgia Southern -0.7

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 1:30PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Dog

48.3% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

80.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Marshall -2 (-311)

-0.2

Model Prob: 72.7%
Market Implied: 75.7%

Conference Trend

Pick

32-38-2

45.7%

Total

UNDER 73.5 (-308)

+12.9

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 75.5%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +5.9
Total Delta: +6.0
Home Residual: +9.5
Away Residual: +0.2
Raw Total: 41.2
Adjusted Total: 60.6

Team Form & Stats

Georgia Southern

Record 5-6 · ATS 5-5-1 · O/U 7-4

Model Score

25.9

Vegas Spread

+9

Passing Yds

200

Rushing Yds

191

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush TDs

1.2

Marshall

Record 5-6 · ATS 7-4 · O/U 6-5

Model Score

34.7

Vegas Spread

-9

Passing Yds

171

Rushing Yds

198

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush TDs

1.2

Recent Game Log

Georgia Southern

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Coastal Carolina	W 45-40	✓	o
Nov 6, 2025	@ App State	W 25-23	✓	u
Oct 25, 2025	@ Arkansas State	L 24-34	✗	u
Oct 18, 2025	vs Georgia State	W 41-24	✓	o
Oct 9, 2025	vs Southern Miss	L 35-38	✗	o

Marshall

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Georgia State	W 30-18	✓	u
Nov 8, 2025	vs James Madison	L 23-35	✓	o
Oct 30, 2025	@ Coastal Carolina	L 27-44	✗	o
Oct 18, 2025	vs Texas State	W 40-37	✓	o
Oct 11, 2025	vs Old Dominion	W 48-24	✓	o

Offensive Projections

Georgia Southern

Pass Yards

200

Pass Attempts

37

Completions

20

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush Yards

191

Rush Att

39

Rush TDs

1.2

Turnovers

1.0

Marshall

Pass Yards

171

Pass Attempts

37

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

198

Rush Att

38

Rush TDs

1.2

Turnovers

0.7

First Half

19.9

Marshall -0.1

Second Half

21.3

Georgia Southern -0.7

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 73%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 63.5

Model Play Line 73.5

Model Projection 60.6

Edge UNDER by 12.9

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Georgia State

+1800

1-10 • ATS: 1-10 • O/U: 6-5

16.3

Raw: 18.3 • Adj: 16.3

+27

Nov 29 • 2:00PM ET

VS

O/U 58.5 Model: 52 (u)

Old Dominion

-5000

8-3 • ATS: 7-4 • O/U: 5-6

35.5

Raw: 25.7 • Adj: 35.5

-27

12%

88%

Spread Pick

Georgia State +36 (-344)(76% Cover Probability)

Away Dog Edge 7.8 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 68.5 (-317)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 16.7 pts

Offensive Projections

Georgia State

Pass Yards

199

Pass Attempts

37

Completions

20

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

184

Rush Att

37

Rush TDs

1.1

Turnovers

1.0

Old Dominion

Pass Yards

175

Pass Attempts

31

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush Yards

241

Rush Att

41

Rush TDs

1.9

Turnovers

1.1

First Half

21.3

Old Dominion -3.9

Second Half

22.7

Old Dominion -3.5

Betting Overview

BEST BET · Spread · Georgia State +36 (-344) · LOW

Top recommended play highlighted below.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 2:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Dog

48.3% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

80.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Georgia State +36 (-344)

+7.8

Model Prob: 76.1%
Market Implied: 77.5%

Conference Trend

Pick

32-38-2

45.7%

Total

UNDER 68.5 (-317)

+16.7

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 76.0%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +2.0
Total Delta: -0.9
Home Residual: +0.8
Away Residual: -2.2
Raw Total: 44.0
Adjusted Total: 51.8

Team Form & Stats

Georgia State

Record 1-10 · ATS 1-10 · O/U 6-5

Model Score

16.3

Vegas Spread

+27

Passing Yds

199

Rushing Yds

184

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush TDs

1.1

Old Dominion

Record 8-3 · ATS 7-4 · O/U 5-6

Model Score

35.5

Vegas Spread

-27

Passing Yds

175

Rushing Yds

241

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush TDs

1.9

Recent Game Log

Georgia State

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Marshall	L 18-30	✗	u
Nov 8, 2025	@ Coastal Carolina	L 27-40	✗	o
Oct 23, 2025	vs South Alabama	L 31-38	✗	o
Oct 18, 2025	@ Georgia Southern	L 24-41	✗	o
Oct 11, 2025	vs App State	L 20-41	✗	o

Old Dominion

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 13, 2025	vs Troy	W 33-0	✓	u
Nov 1, 2025	@ UL Monroe	W 31-6	✓	u
Oct 25, 2025	vs App State	W 24-21	✗	u
Oct 18, 2025	@ James Madison	L 27-63	✗	o
Oct 11, 2025	@ Marshall	L 24-48	✗	o

Offensive Projections

Georgia State

Pass Yards

199

Pass Attempts

37

Completions

20

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

184

Rush Att

37

Rush TDs

1.1

Turnovers

1.0

Old Dominion

Pass Yards

175

Pass Attempts

31

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush Yards

241

Rush Att

41

Rush TDs

1.9

Turnovers

1.1

First Half

21.3

Old Dominion -3.9

Second Half

22.7

Old Dominion -3.5

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 76%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

Recommended Bets

SPREAD

Georgia State +36 (-344)

76%

Edge

+7.8 pts

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 58.5

Model Play Line 68.5

Model Projection 51.8

Edge UNDER by 16.7

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Western Kentucky

-142

8-3 • ATS: 9-2 • O/U: 5-6

25.6

Raw: 20.5 • Adj: 25.6

-3

Nov 29 • 2:00PM ET

VS

O/U 55.5 Model: 53.5 (u)

Jacksonville State

+120

7-4 • ATS: 5-6 • O/U: 7-4

28.0

Raw: 28.9 • Adj: 28.0

+3

44.8%

55.2%

Spread Pick

Jacksonville State +12.5 (-382)(77% Cover Probability)

Home Dog Edge 0.6 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 65.5 (-309)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 12.0 pts

Offensive Projections

Western Kentucky

Pass Yards

209

Pass Attempts

38

Completions

22

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush Yards

174

Rush Att

38

Rush TDs

1.1

Turnovers

1.2

Jacksonville State

Pass Yards

174

Pass Attempts

26

Completions

15

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush Yards

290

Rush Att

52

Rush TDs

2.4

Turnovers

0.8

First Half

23.2

Jacksonville State -4.0

Second Half

26.2

Jacksonville State -4.4

Betting Overview

BEST BET · Spread · Jacksonville State +12.5 (-382) · LOW

Top recommended play highlighted below.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 2:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Dog

55.4% hit

ML Segment

Home Dog

47.9% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Jacksonville State +12.5 (-382)

+0.6

Model Prob: 77.4%
Market Implied: 79.3%

Conference Trend

Pick

41-21-1

66.1%

Total

UNDER 65.5 (-309)

+12.0

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 75.6%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +1.4
Total Delta: +1.8
Home Residual: +0.3
Away Residual: +2.6
Raw Total: 49.4
Adjusted Total: 53.5

Team Form & Stats

Western Kentucky

Record 8-3 · ATS 9-2 · O/U 5-6

Model Score

25.6

Vegas Spread

-3

Passing Yds

209

Rushing Yds

174

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush TDs

1.1

Jacksonville State

Record 7-4 · ATS 5-6 · O/U 7-4

Model Score

28.0

Vegas Spread

+3

Passing Yds

174

Rushing Yds

290

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush TDs

2.4

Recent Game Log

Western Kentucky

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Middle Tennessee	W 42-26	✓	o
Nov 1, 2025	vs New Mexico State	W 35-16	✓	u
Oct 21, 2025	@ Louisiana Tech	W 28-27	✓	o
Oct 3, 2025	@ Delaware	W 27-24	✓	u
Sep 27, 2025	@ Missouri State	W 27-22	✓	u

Jacksonville State

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Kennesaw State	W 35-26	✓	o
Nov 8, 2025	@ UTEP	W 30-27	✓	o
Nov 1, 2025	@ Middle Tennessee	W 24-21	✗	u
Oct 15, 2025	vs Delaware	W 38-25	✓	o
Oct 9, 2025	@ Sam Houston	W 29-27	✗	o

Offensive Projections

Western Kentucky

Pass Yards

209

Pass Attempts

38

Completions

22

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush Yards

174

Rush Att

38

Rush TDs

1.1

Turnovers

1.2

Jacksonville State

Pass Yards

174

Pass Attempts

26

Completions

15

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush Yards

290

Rush Att

52

Rush TDs

2.4

Turnovers

0.8

First Half

23.2

Jacksonville State -4.0

Second Half

26.2

Jacksonville State -4.4

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 77%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

Recommended Bets

SPREAD

Jacksonville State +12.5 (-382)

77%

Edge

+0.6 pts

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 55.5

Model Play Line 65.5

Model Projection 53.5

Edge UNDER by 12.0

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Louisiana Tech

+114

6-5 • ATS: 7-4 • O/U: 4-7

20.1

Raw: 15.6 • Adj: 20.1

+2.5

Nov 29 • 2:00PM ET

VS

O/U 48.5 Model: 45.5 (u)

Missouri State

-135

7-4 • ATS: 7-4 • O/U: 3-8

25.3

Raw: 24.1 • Adj: 25.3

-2.5

37.1%

62.9%

Spread Pick

Missouri State +7.5 (-458)(68% Cover Probability)

Home Favorite Edge 2.7 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 59.5 (-319)(80% Hit Probability)

Edge 14.1 pts

Offensive Projections

Louisiana Tech

Pass Yards

145

Pass Attempts

30

Completions

16

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush Yards

185

Rush Att

40

Rush TDs

0.9

Turnovers

0.9

Missouri State

Pass Yards

192

Pass Attempts

29

Completions

17

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush Yards

222

Rush Att

40

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

0.8

First Half

18.2

Missouri State -3.2

Second Half

21.4

Missouri State -5.2

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 2:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Favorite

55.7% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

80.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Missouri State +7.5 (-458)

+2.7

Model Prob: 68.0%
Market Implied: 82.1%

Conference Trend

Opponent

41-21-1

66.1%

Total

UNDER 59.5 (-319)

+14.1

Model Prob: 79.5%
Market Implied: 76.1%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: -1.6
Total Delta: +1.6
Home Residual: —
Away Residual: +2.6
Raw Total: 39.7
Adjusted Total: 45.4

Team Form & Stats

Louisiana Tech

Record 6-5 · ATS 7-4 · O/U 4-7

Model Score

20.1

Vegas Spread

+2.5

Passing Yds

145

Rushing Yds

185

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush TDs

0.9

Missouri State

Record 7-4 · ATS 7-4 · O/U 3-8

Model Score

25.3

Vegas Spread

-2.5

Passing Yds

192

Rushing Yds

222

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush TDs

1.5

Recent Game Log

Louisiana Tech

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Washington State	L 3-28	✗	u
Nov 8, 2025	@ Delaware	L 24-25	✗	u
Oct 31, 2025	vs Sam Houston	W 55-14	✓	o
Oct 21, 2025	vs Western Kentucky	L 27-28	✗	o
Oct 9, 2025	@ Kennesaw State	L 7-35	✗	u

Missouri State

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs UTEP	W 38-24	✓	o
Nov 8, 2025	@ Liberty	W 21-17	✓	u
Oct 29, 2025	vs Florida International	W 28-21	✓	u
Oct 22, 2025	@ New Mexico State	W 24-17	✓	u
Oct 14, 2025	@ Middle Tennessee	W 22-20	✗	u

Offensive Projections

Louisiana Tech

Pass Yards

145

Pass Attempts

30

Completions

16

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush Yards

185

Rush Att

40

Rush TDs

0.9

Turnovers

0.9

Missouri State

Pass Yards

192

Pass Attempts

29

Completions

17

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush Yards

222

Rush Att

40

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

0.8

First Half

18.2

Missouri State -3.2

Second Half

21.4

Missouri State -5.2

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 68%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 80%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 48.5

Model Play Line 59.5

Model Projection 45.4

Edge UNDER by 14.1

UNDER 80% Confidence

20%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Arkansas State

+114

5-6 • ATS: 7-4 • O/U: 3-8

21.6

Raw: 19.7 • Adj: 21.6

+2.5

Nov 29 • 2:30PM ET

VS

O/U 54 Model: 48 (u)

App State

-135

5-6 • ATS: 5-6 • O/U: 5-6

26.3

Raw: 25.7 • Adj: 26.3

-2.5

38.5%

61.5%

Spread Pick

App State +7.5 (-414)(68% Cover Probability)

Home Favorite Edge 2.2 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 64.5 (-303)(86% Hit Probability)

Edge 16.6 pts

Offensive Projections

Arkansas State

Pass Yards

234

Pass Attempts

45

Completions

26

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush Yards

187

Rush Att

36

Rush TDs

1.2

Turnovers

1.1

App State

Pass Yards

258

Pass Attempts

38

Completions

23

Pass TDs

1.9

Rush Yards

220

Rush Att

39

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

1.3

First Half

21.0

App State -2.8

Second Half

24.4

App State -3.2

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 2:30PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Favorite

55.7% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

80.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

App State +7.5 (-414)

+2.2

Model Prob: 68.0%
Market Implied: 80.5%

Conference Trend

Pick

32-38-2

45.7%

Total

UNDER 64.5 (-303)

+16.6

Model Prob: 85.7%
Market Implied: 75.2%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: -0.6
Total Delta: -1.4
Home Residual: -1.5
Away Residual: -0.7
Raw Total: 45.4
Adjusted Total: 47.9

Team Form & Stats

Arkansas State

Record 5-6 · ATS 7-4 · O/U 3-8

Model Score

21.6

Vegas Spread

+2.5

Passing Yds

234

Rushing Yds

187

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush TDs

1.2

App State

Record 5-6 · ATS 5-6 · O/U 5-6

Model Score

26.3

Vegas Spread

-2.5

Passing Yds

258

Rushing Yds

220

Pass TDs

1.9

Rush TDs

1.5

Recent Game Log

Arkansas State

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 8, 2025	vs Southern Miss	L 21-27	✓	u
Nov 1, 2025	@ Troy	W 23-10	✓	u
Oct 25, 2025	vs Georgia Southern	W 34-24	✓	u
Oct 4, 2025	vs Texas State	W 31-30	✓	u
Sep 27, 2025	@ UL Monroe	L 16-28	✗	u

App State

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ James Madison	L 10-58	✗	o
Nov 6, 2025	vs Georgia Southern	L 23-25	✗	u
Oct 25, 2025	@ Old Dominion	L 21-24	✓	u
Oct 18, 2025	vs Coastal Carolina	L 37-45	✗	o
Oct 11, 2025	@ Georgia State	W 41-20	✓	o

Offensive Projections

Arkansas State

Pass Yards

234

Pass Attempts

45

Completions

26

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush Yards

187

Rush Att

36

Rush TDs

1.2

Turnovers

1.1

App State

Pass Yards

258

Pass Attempts

38

Completions

23

Pass TDs

1.9

Rush Yards

220

Rush Att

39

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

1.3

First Half

21.0

App State -2.8

Second Half

24.4

App State -3.2

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 68%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 86%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 54

Model Play Line 64.5

Model Projection 47.9

Edge UNDER by 16.6

UNDER 86% Confidence

14%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

UAB

+250

3-8 • ATS: 3-8 • O/U: 6-5

22.6

Raw: 20.2 • Adj: 22.6

+8.5

Nov 29 • 3:00PM ET

VS

O/U 58.5 Model: 52 (u)

Tulsa

-310

4-7 • ATS: 6-5 • O/U: 5-6

29.4

Raw: 23.0 • Adj: 29.4

-8.5

33.6%

66.4%

Spread Pick

Tulsa +1.5 (-375)(73% Cover Probability)

Away Dog Edge 1.7 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 69.5 (-354)(87% Hit Probability)

Edge 17.6 pts

Offensive Projections

UAB

Pass Yards

230

Pass Attempts

41

Completions

23

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush Yards

185

Rush Att

38

Rush TDs

1.0

Turnovers

1.4

Tulsa

Pass Yards

209

Pass Attempts

39

Completions

22

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush Yards

209

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

1.4

Turnovers

1.1

First Half

20.1

Tulsa -1.3

Second Half

23.1

Tulsa -1.5

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 3:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Dog

48.3% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

80.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Tulsa +1.5 (-375)

-1.7

Model Prob: 72.7%
Market Implied: 78.9%

Conference Trend

Pick

35-31-2

53.0%

Total

UNDER 69.5 (-354)

+17.6

Model Prob: 87.1%
Market Implied: 78.0%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +2.4
Total Delta: -0.4
Home Residual: +1.7
Away Residual: -2.3
Raw Total: 43.2
Adjusted Total: 51.9

Team Form & Stats

UAB

Record 3-8 · ATS 3-8 · O/U 6-5

Model Score

22.6

Vegas Spread

+8.5

Passing Yds

230

Rushing Yds

185

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush TDs

1.0

Tulsa

Record 4-7 · ATS 6-5 · O/U 5-6

Model Score

29.4

Vegas Spread

-8.5

Passing Yds

209

Rushing Yds

209

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush TDs

1.4

Recent Game Log

UAB

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs North Texas	L 24-53	✗	o
Nov 8, 2025	@ Rice	L 17-24	✗	u
Nov 1, 2025	@ UConn	L 19-38	✗	u
Oct 18, 2025	vs Memphis	W 31-24	✓	u
Oct 11, 2025	@ Florida Atlantic	L 33-53	✗	o

Tulsa

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Oregon State	W 31-14	✓	u
Oct 25, 2025	vs Temple	L 37-38	✓	o
Oct 16, 2025	@ East Carolina	L 27-41	✓	o
Oct 4, 2025	@ Memphis	L 7-45	✗	u
Sep 27, 2025	vs Tulane	L 14-31	✗	u

Offensive Projections

UAB

Pass Yards

230

Pass Attempts

41

Completions

23

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush Yards

185

Rush Att

38

Rush TDs

1.0

Turnovers

1.4

Tulsa

Pass Yards

209

Pass Attempts

39

Completions

22

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush Yards

209

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

1.4

Turnovers

1.1

First Half

20.1

Tulsa -1.3

Second Half

23.1

Tulsa -1.5

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 73%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 87%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 58.5

Model Play Line 69.5

Model Projection 51.9

Edge UNDER by 17.6

UNDER 87% Confidence

13%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Boston College

-155

1-10 • ATS: 5-6 • O/U: 8-3

22.9

Raw: 19.7 • Adj: 22.9

-3

Nov 29 • 3:00PM ET

VS

O/U 52.5 Model: 41 (u)

Syracuse

+130

3-8 • ATS: 4-6-1 • O/U: 6-5

17.9

Raw: 19.1 • Adj: 17.9

+3

62.7%

37.3%

Spread Pick

Syracuse +12.5 (-373)(77% Cover Probability)

Away Favorite Edge 1.9 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 60.5 (-260)(75% Hit Probability)

Edge 19.7 pts

Offensive Projections

Boston College

Pass Yards

165

Pass Attempts

29

Completions

16

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

212

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

1.3

Turnovers

0.9

Syracuse

Pass Yards

222

Pass Attempts

36

Completions

22

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush Yards

162

Rush Att

35

Rush TDs

1.0

Turnovers

0.8

First Half

17.4

Boston College -0.4

Second Half

21.3

Boston College -0.3

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 3:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Favorite

70.4% hit

ML Segment

Away Favorite

72.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: LEAN

Spread

Syracuse +12.5 (-373)

-1.9

Model Prob: 77.4%
Market Implied: 78.9%

Conference Trend

Pick

36-37-3

49.3%

Total

UNDER 60.5 (-260)

+19.7

Model Prob: 75.5%
Market Implied: 72.2%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +3.8
Total Delta: -6.0
Home Residual: -10.1
Away Residual: -3.9
Raw Total: 38.8
Adjusted Total: 40.8

Team Form & Stats

Boston College

Record 1-10 · ATS 5-6 · O/U 8-3

Model Score

22.9

Vegas Spread

-3

Passing Yds

165

Rushing Yds

212

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush TDs

1.3

Syracuse

Record 3-8 · ATS 4-6-1 · O/U 6-5

Model Score

17.9

Vegas Spread

+3

Passing Yds

222

Rushing Yds

162

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush TDs

1.0

Recent Game Log

Boston College

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Georgia Tech	L 34-36	✓	o
Nov 8, 2025	vs SMU	L 13-45	✗	o
Nov 1, 2025	vs Notre Dame	L 10-25	✓	u
Oct 25, 2025	@ Louisville	L 24-38	✓	o
Oct 18, 2025	vs UConn	L 23-38	✗	o

Syracuse

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 8, 2025	@ Miami	L 10-38	✓	o
Oct 31, 2025	vs North Carolina	L 10-27	✗	u
Oct 25, 2025	@ Georgia Tech	L 16-41	✗	o
Oct 18, 2025	vs Pittsburgh	L 13-30	✗	u
Oct 4, 2025	@ SMU	L 18-31	✓	u

Offensive Projections

Boston College

Pass Yards

165

Pass Attempts

29

Completions

16

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

212

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

1.3

Turnovers

0.9

Syracuse

Pass Yards

222

Pass Attempts

36

Completions

22

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush Yards

162

Rush Att

35

Rush TDs

1.0

Turnovers

0.8

First Half

17.4

Boston College -0.4

Second Half

21.3

Boston College -0.3

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 77%

Total Confidence LEAN

Model Probability: 75%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 52.5

Model Play Line 60.5

Model Projection 40.8

Edge UNDER by 19.7

UNDER 75% Confidence

25%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

UL Monroe

+295

3-8 • ATS: 3-8 • O/U: 5-6

15.4

Raw: 15.8 • Adj: 15.4

+9.5

Nov 29 • 3:00PM ET

VS

O/U 48.5 Model: 43 (u)

Louisiana

-375

5-6 • ATS: 6-5 • O/U: 7-4

27.7

Raw: 21.5 • Adj: 27.7

-9.5

22.5%

77.5%

Spread Pick

Louisiana -1.5 (-353)(75% Cover Probability)

Home Favorite Edge 2.8 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 58.5 (-398)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 15.4 pts

Offensive Projections

UL Monroe

Pass Yards

114

Pass Attempts

23

Completions

12

Pass TDs

0.6

Rush Yards

236

Rush Att

46

Rush TDs

1.3

Turnovers

1.0

Louisiana

Pass Yards

155

Pass Attempts

29

Completions

16

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush Yards

241

Rush Att

40

Rush TDs

1.4

Turnovers

0.7

First Half

17.0

Louisiana -2.6

Second Half

20.3

Louisiana -3.1

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 3:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Favorite

55.7% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

80.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Louisiana -1.5 (-353)

+2.8

Model Prob: 75.0%
Market Implied: 77.9%

Conference Trend

Pick

32-38-2

45.7%

Total

UNDER 58.5 (-398)

+15.4

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 79.9%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +5.8
Total Delta: -0.0
Home Residual: +4.5
Away Residual: -4.3
Raw Total: 37.3
Adjusted Total: 43.1

Team Form & Stats

UL Monroe

Record 3-8 · ATS 3-8 · O/U 5-6

Model Score

15.4

Vegas Spread

+9.5

Passing Yds

114

Rushing Yds

236

Pass TDs

0.6

Rush TDs

1.3

Louisiana

Record 5-6 · ATS 6-5 · O/U 7-4

Model Score

27.7

Vegas Spread

-9.5

Passing Yds

155

Rushing Yds

241

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush TDs

1.4

Recent Game Log

UL Monroe

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs South Alabama	L 14-26	✗	u
Nov 1, 2025	vs Old Dominion	L 6-31	✗	u
Oct 25, 2025	@ Southern Miss	L 21-49	✗	o
Oct 18, 2025	vs Troy	L 14-37	✗	o
Oct 11, 2025	@ Coastal Carolina	L 8-23	✗	u

Louisiana

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 8, 2025	vs Texas State	W 42-39	✓	o
Nov 1, 2025	@ South Alabama	W 31-22	✓	u
Oct 25, 2025	@ Troy	L 23-35	✗	o
Oct 18, 2025	vs Southern Miss	L 10-22	✗	u
Oct 11, 2025	@ James Madison	L 14-24	✓	u

Offensive Projections

UL Monroe

Pass Yards

114

Pass Attempts

23

Completions

12

Pass TDs

0.6

Rush Yards

236

Rush Att

46

Rush TDs

1.3

Turnovers

1.0

Louisiana

Pass Yards

155

Pass Attempts

29

Completions

16

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush Yards

241

Rush Att

40

Rush TDs

1.4

Turnovers

0.7

First Half

17.0

Louisiana -2.6

Second Half

20.3

Louisiana -3.1

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 75%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 48.5

Model Play Line 58.5

Model Projection 43.1

Edge UNDER by 15.4

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Middle Tennessee

+154

2-9 • ATS: 5-6 • O/U: 5-6

24.1

Raw: 17.9 • Adj: 24.1

+4

Nov 29 • 3:00PM ET

VS

O/U 52.5 Model: 49 (u)

New Mexico State

-185

4-7 • ATS: 6-5 • O/U: 4-7

24.7

Raw: 18.3 • Adj: 24.7

-4

48.3%

51.7%

Spread Pick

New Mexico State +5.5 (-423)(60% Cover Probability)

Away Dog Edge 3.4 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 62.5 (-330)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 13.7 pts

Offensive Projections

Middle Tennessee

Pass Yards

206

Pass Attempts

39

Completions

22

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

146

Rush Att

32

Rush TDs

0.8

Turnovers

1.1

New Mexico State

Pass Yards

133

Pass Attempts

31

Completions

16

Pass TDs

0.7

Rush Yards

213

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

1.4

Turnovers

1.2

First Half

17.2

New Mexico State -0.6

Second Half

19.0

Middle Tennessee -0.2

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 3:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Dog

48.3% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

80.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

New Mexico State +5.5 (-423)

-3.4

Model Prob: 59.5%
Market Implied: 80.9%

Conference Trend

Pick

41-21-1

66.1%

Total

UNDER 62.5 (-330)

+13.7

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 76.7%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: -0.5
Total Delta: +2.8
Home Residual: +1.8
Away Residual: +2.6
Raw Total: 36.2
Adjusted Total: 48.8

Team Form & Stats

Middle Tennessee

Record 2-9 · ATS 5-6 · O/U 5-6

Model Score

24.1

Vegas Spread

+4

Passing Yds

206

Rushing Yds

146

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush TDs

0.8

New Mexico State

Record 4-7 · ATS 6-5 · O/U 4-7

Model Score

24.7

Vegas Spread

-4

Passing Yds

133

Rushing Yds

213

Pass TDs

0.7

Rush TDs

1.4

Recent Game Log

Middle Tennessee

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Western Kentucky	L 26-42	✗	o
Nov 8, 2025	vs Florida International	L 30-56	✗	o
Nov 1, 2025	vs Jacksonville State	L 21-24	✓	u
Oct 30, 2025	@ Delaware	L 28-31	✓	o
Oct 14, 2025	vs Missouri State	L 20-22	✓	u

New Mexico State

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Tennessee	L 9-42	✓	u
Nov 8, 2025	vs Kennesaw State	L 21-24	✓	u
Nov 1, 2025	@ Western Kentucky	L 16-35	✗	u
Oct 22, 2025	vs Missouri State	L 17-24	✗	u
Oct 2, 2025	vs Sam Houston	W 37-10	✓	u

Offensive Projections

Middle Tennessee

Pass Yards

206

Pass Attempts

39

Completions

22

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

146

Rush Att

32

Rush TDs

0.8

Turnovers

1.1

New Mexico State

Pass Yards

133

Pass Attempts

31

Completions

16

Pass TDs

0.7

Rush Yards

213

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

1.4

Turnovers

1.2

First Half

17.2

New Mexico State -0.6

Second Half

19.0

Middle Tennessee -0.2

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 60%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 52.5

Model Play Line 62.5

Model Projection 48.8

Edge UNDER by 13.7

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

South Alabama

+275

4-7 • ATS: 5-6 • O/U: 7-4

27.9

Raw: 26.2 • Adj: 27.9

+9.5

Nov 29 • 3:00PM ET

VS

O/U 62.5 Model: 60.5 (u)

Texas State

-345

5-6 • ATS: 3-8 • O/U: 6-5

32.4

Raw: 27.3 • Adj: 32.4

-9.5

39.7%

60.3%

Spread Pick

Texas State -1.5 (-334)(75% Cover Probability)

Away Dog Edge 4.9 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 72.5 (-330)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 12.2 pts

Offensive Projections

South Alabama

Pass Yards

182

Pass Attempts

32

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush Yards

251

Rush Att

45

Rush TDs

1.8

Turnovers

0.7

Texas State

Pass Yards

258

Pass Attempts

38

Completions

23

Pass TDs

2.0

Rush Yards

195

Rush Att

35

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

1.2

First Half

24.7

Texas State -1.3

Second Half

28.7

South Alabama -0.1

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 3:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Dog

48.3% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

80.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LEAN · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Texas State -1.5 (-334)

-4.9

Model Prob: 75.0%
Market Implied: 77.0%

Conference Trend

Pick

32-38-2

45.7%

Total

UNDER 72.5 (-330)

+12.2

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 76.7%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +0.7
Total Delta: +2.6
Home Residual: +2.6
Away Residual: +1.6
Raw Total: 53.5
Adjusted Total: 60.3

Team Form & Stats

South Alabama

Record 4-7 · ATS 5-6 · O/U 7-4

Model Score

27.9

Vegas Spread

+9.5

Passing Yds

182

Rushing Yds

251

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush TDs

1.8

Texas State

Record 5-6 · ATS 3-8 · O/U 6-5

Model Score

32.4

Vegas Spread

-9.5

Passing Yds

258

Rushing Yds

195

Pass TDs

2.0

Rush TDs

1.5

Recent Game Log

South Alabama

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ UL Monroe	W 26-14	✓	u
Nov 1, 2025	vs Louisiana	L 22-31	✗	u
Oct 23, 2025	@ Georgia State	W 38-31	✓	o
Oct 4, 2025	@ Troy	L 24-31	✗	o
Sep 27, 2025	@ North Texas	L 22-36	✗	u

Texas State

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Southern Miss	W 41-14	✓	u
Nov 8, 2025	@ Louisiana	L 39-42	✗	o
Oct 28, 2025	vs James Madison	L 20-52	✗	o
Oct 18, 2025	@ Marshall	L 37-40	✗	o
Oct 11, 2025	vs Troy	L 41-48	✗	o

Offensive Projections

South Alabama

Pass Yards

182

Pass Attempts

32

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush Yards

251

Rush Att

45

Rush TDs

1.8

Turnovers

0.7

Texas State

Pass Yards

258

Pass Attempts

38

Completions

23

Pass TDs

2.0

Rush Yards

195

Rush Att

35

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

1.2

First Half

24.7

Texas State -1.3

Second Half

28.7

South Alabama -0.1

Spread Confidence LEAN

Model Probability: 75%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 62.5

Model Play Line 72.5

Model Projection 60.3

Edge UNDER by 12.2

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

#12

Vanderbilt

+124

9-2 • ATS: 9-2 • O/U: 7-4

32.1

Raw: 22.2 • Adj: 32.1

+3

Nov 29 • 3:30PM ET

VS

O/U 66 Model: 64.5 (u)

#20

Tennessee

-148

8-3 • ATS: 5-6 • O/U: 7-4

32.2

Raw: 24.6 • Adj: 32.2

-3

49.8%

50.2%

Spread Pick

Tennessee +6 (-389)(65% Cover Probability)

Away Dog Edge 2.9 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 75.5 (-269)(78% Hit Probability)

Edge 11.2 pts

Offensive Projections

Vanderbilt

Pass Yards

163

Pass Attempts

29

Completions

16

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

221

Rush Att

44

Rush TDs

1.4

Turnovers

0.6

Tennessee

Pass Yards

193

Pass Attempts

34

Completions

19

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush Yards

213

Rush Att

40

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

0.8

First Half

21.9

Tennessee -1.5

Second Half

24.9

Tennessee -0.9

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 3:30PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Dog

48.3% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

80.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: LEAN

Spread

Tennessee +6 (-389)

-2.9

Model Prob: 64.9%
Market Implied: 79.6%

Conference Trend

Pick

30-28-4

51.7%

Total

UNDER 75.5 (-269)

+11.2

Model Prob: 78.1%
Market Implied: 72.9%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: -2.4
Total Delta: +6.0
Home Residual: +4.0
Away Residual: +7.8
Raw Total: 46.7
Adjusted Total: 64.3

Team Form & Stats

Vanderbilt

Record 9-2 · ATS 9-2 · O/U 7-4

#12

Model Score

32.1

Vegas Spread

+3

Passing Yds

163

Rushing Yds

221

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush TDs

1.4

Tennessee

Record 8-3 · ATS 5-6 · O/U 7-4

#20

Model Score

32.2

Vegas Spread

-3

Passing Yds

193

Rushing Yds

213

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush TDs

1.5

Recent Game Log

Vanderbilt

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 8, 2025	vs Auburn	W 45-38	✓	o
Nov 1, 2025	@ Texas	L 31-34	✓	o
Oct 25, 2025	vs Missouri	W 17-10	✓	u
Oct 18, 2025	vs LSU	W 31-24	✓	o
Oct 4, 2025	@ Alabama	L 14-30	✗	u

Tennessee

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs New Mexico State	W 42-9	✗	u
Nov 1, 2025	vs Oklahoma	L 27-33	✗	o
Oct 25, 2025	@ Kentucky	W 56-34	✓	o
Oct 18, 2025	@ Alabama	L 20-37	✗	u
Oct 11, 2025	vs Arkansas	W 34-31	✗	u

Offensive Projections

Vanderbilt

Pass Yards

163

Pass Attempts

29

Completions

16

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

221

Rush Att

44

Rush TDs

1.4

Turnovers

0.6

Tennessee

Pass Yards

193

Pass Attempts

34

Completions

19

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush Yards

213

Rush Att

40

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

0.8

First Half

21.9

Tennessee -1.5

Second Half

24.9

Tennessee -0.9

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 65%

Total Confidence LEAN

Model Probability: 78%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 66

Model Play Line 75.5

Model Projection 64.3

Edge UNDER by 11.2

UNDER 78% Confidence

22%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

#23

Missouri

-142

7-4 • ATS: 6-5 • O/U: 6-4

23.6

Raw: 22.3 • Adj: 23.6

-2.5

Nov 29 • 3:30PM ET

VS

O/U 55 Model: 50.5 (u)

Arkansas

+120

2-9 • ATS: 4-7 • O/U: 8-3

26.7

Raw: 26.0 • Adj: 26.7

+2.5

43.1%

56.9%

Spread Pick

Arkansas +12.5 (-393)(78% Cover Probability)

Away Favorite Edge 0.5 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 67.5 (-300)(80% Hit Probability)

Edge 17.2 pts

Offensive Projections

Missouri

Pass Yards

185

Pass Attempts

32

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush Yards

218

Rush Att

43

Rush TDs

1.4

Turnovers

0.7

Arkansas

Pass Yards

195

Pass Attempts

30

Completions

16

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

228

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

1.9

Turnovers

1.0

First Half

22.2

Arkansas -2.2

Second Half

26.2

Arkansas -1.4

Betting Overview

BEST BET · Spread · Arkansas +12.5 (-393) · LOW

Top recommended play highlighted below.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 3:30PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Favorite

70.4% hit

ML Segment

Home Dog

47.9% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Arkansas +12.5 (-393)

-0.5

Model Prob: 78.4%
Market Implied: 79.7%

Conference Trend

Pick

30-28-4

51.7%

Total

UNDER 67.5 (-300)

+17.2

Model Prob: 80.0%
Market Implied: 75.0%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: -1.0
Total Delta: -0.8
Home Residual: +0.2
Away Residual: -1.4
Raw Total: 48.3
Adjusted Total: 50.3

Team Form & Stats

Missouri

Record 7-4 · ATS 6-5 · O/U 6-4

#23

Model Score

23.6

Vegas Spread

-2.5

Passing Yds

185

Rushing Yds

218

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush TDs

1.4

Arkansas

Record 2-9 · ATS 4-7 · O/U 8-3

Model Score

26.7

Vegas Spread

+2.5

Passing Yds

195

Rushing Yds

228

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush TDs

1.9

Recent Game Log

Missouri

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Mississippi State	W 49-27	✓	o
Nov 8, 2025	vs Texas A&M	L 17-38	✗	o
Oct 25, 2025	@ Vanderbilt	L 10-17	✗	u
Oct 18, 2025	@ Auburn	W 23-17	✓	u
Oct 11, 2025	vs Alabama	L 24-27	✗	u

Arkansas

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ LSU	L 22-23	✓	u
Nov 1, 2025	vs Mississippi State	L 35-38	✗	o
Oct 25, 2025	vs Auburn	L 24-33	✗	o
Oct 18, 2025	vs Texas A&M	L 42-45	✓	o
Oct 11, 2025	@ Tennessee	L 31-34	✓	u

Offensive Projections

Missouri

Pass Yards

185

Pass Attempts

32

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush Yards

218

Rush Att

43

Rush TDs

1.4

Turnovers

0.7

Arkansas

Pass Yards

195

Pass Attempts

30

Completions

16

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

228

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

1.9

Turnovers

1.0

First Half

22.2

Arkansas -2.2

Second Half

26.2

Arkansas -1.4

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 78%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 80%

Recommended Bets

SPREAD

Arkansas +12.5 (-393)

78%

Edge

-0.5 pts

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 55

Model Play Line 67.5

Model Projection 50.3

Edge UNDER by 17.2

UNDER 80% Confidence

20%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Troy

+205

7-4 • ATS: 8-3 • O/U: 5-6

24.3

Raw: 23.9 • Adj: 24.3

+6.5

Nov 29 • 3:30PM ET

VS

O/U 50.5 Model: 51.5 (o)

Southern Miss

-250

7-4 • ATS: 5-5-1 • O/U: 6-5

27.1

Raw: 16.2 • Adj: 27.1

-6.5

43.1%

56.9%

Spread Pick

Southern Miss +3.5 (-439)(63% Cover Probability)

Away Dog Edge 3.7 pts

Total Pick

OVER 40.5 (-366)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 10.8 pts

Offensive Projections

Troy

Pass Yards

166

Pass Attempts

28

Completions

16

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush Yards

226

Rush Att

44

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

0.8

Southern Miss

Pass Yards

162

Pass Attempts

32

Completions

18

Pass TDs

0.8

Rush Yards

191

Rush Att

41

Rush TDs

1.0

Turnovers

1.4

First Half

18.4

Troy -3.0

Second Half

21.7

Troy -4.7

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 3:30PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Dog

48.3% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

80.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Southern Miss +3.5 (-439)

-3.7

Model Prob: 63.2%
Market Implied: 81.4%

Conference Trend

Pick

32-38-2

45.7%

Total

OVER 40.5 (-366)

+10.8

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 78.5%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +3.7
Total Delta: +6.0
Home Residual: +8.1
Away Residual: +2.2
Raw Total: 40.1
Adjusted Total: 51.3

Team Form & Stats

Troy

Record 7-4 · ATS 8-3 · O/U 5-6

Model Score

24.3

Vegas Spread

+6.5

Passing Yds

166

Rushing Yds

226

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush TDs

1.5

Southern Miss

Record 7-4 · ATS 5-5-1 · O/U 6-5

Model Score

27.1

Vegas Spread

-6.5

Passing Yds

162

Rushing Yds

191

Pass TDs

0.8

Rush TDs

1.0

Recent Game Log

Troy

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 13, 2025	@ Old Dominion	L 0-33	✗	u
Nov 1, 2025	vs Arkansas State	L 10-23	✗	u
Oct 25, 2025	vs Louisiana	W 35-23	✓	o
Oct 18, 2025	@ UL Monroe	W 37-14	✓	o
Oct 11, 2025	@ Texas State	W 48-41	✓	o

Southern Miss

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Texas State	L 14-41	✗	u
Nov 8, 2025	@ Arkansas State	W 27-21	✗	u
Oct 25, 2025	vs UL Monroe	W 49-21	✓	o
Oct 18, 2025	@ Louisiana	W 22-10	✓	u
Oct 9, 2025	@ Georgia Southern	W 38-35	✗	o

Offensive Projections

Troy

Pass Yards

166

Pass Attempts

28

Completions

16

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush Yards

226

Rush Att

44

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

0.8

Southern Miss

Pass Yards

162

Pass Attempts

32

Completions

18

Pass TDs

0.8

Rush Yards

191

Rush Att

41

Rush TDs

1.0

Turnovers

1.4

First Half

18.4

Troy -3.0

Second Half

21.7

Troy -4.7

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 63%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 50.5

Model Play Line 40.5

Model Projection 51.3

Edge OVER by 10.8

OVER 79% Confidence

OVER 79%

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Wake Forest

-105

8-3 • ATS: 8-3 • O/U: 6-5

25.6

Raw: 16.6 • Adj: 25.6

+1.5

Nov 29 • 3:30PM ET

VS

O/U 55.5 Model: 55.5 (o)

Duke

-115

6-5 • ATS: 5-6 • O/U: 8-3

29.9

Raw: 23.9 • Adj: 29.9

-1.5

39.3%

60.7%

Spread Pick

Duke +8.5 (-335)(73% Cover Probability)

Home Favorite Edge 2.7 pts

Total Pick

OVER 45.5 (-315)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 10.0 pts

Offensive Projections

Wake Forest

Pass Yards

151

Pass Attempts

32

Completions

17

Pass TDs

0.8

Rush Yards

201

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

1.1

Turnovers

1.0

Duke

Pass Yards

242

Pass Attempts

39

Completions

24

Pass TDs

1.7

Rush Yards

160

Rush Att

34

Rush TDs

1.1

Turnovers

1.0

First Half

19.2

Duke -4.2

Second Half

21.3

Duke -3.1

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 3:30PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Favorite

55.7% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

80.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Duke +8.5 (-335)

+2.7

Model Prob: 72.7%
Market Implied: 77.0%

Conference Trend

Pick

36-37-3

49.3%

Total

OVER 45.5 (-315)

+10.0

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 75.9%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: -1.5
Total Delta: +6.0
Home Residual: +4.2
Away Residual: +6.3
Raw Total: 40.6
Adjusted Total: 55.5

Team Form & Stats

Wake Forest

Record 8-3 · ATS 8-3 · O/U 6-5

Model Score

25.6

Vegas Spread

+1.5

Passing Yds

151

Rushing Yds

201

Pass TDs

0.8

Rush TDs

1.1

Duke

Record 6-5 · ATS 5-6 · O/U 8-3

Model Score

29.9

Vegas Spread

-1.5

Passing Yds

242

Rushing Yds

160

Pass TDs

1.7

Rush TDs

1.1

Recent Game Log

Wake Forest

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs North Carolina	W 28-12	✓	o
Nov 8, 2025	@ Virginia	W 16-9	✓	u
Nov 1, 2025	@ Florida State	L 7-42	✗	u
Oct 25, 2025	vs SMU	W 13-12	✓	u
Oct 11, 2025	@ Oregon State	W 39-14	✓	o

Duke

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Virginia	L 17-34	✗	u
Nov 8, 2025	@ UConn	L 34-37	✗	o
Nov 1, 2025	@ Clemson	W 46-45	✓	o
Oct 18, 2025	vs Georgia Tech	L 18-27	✗	u
Oct 4, 2025	@ California	W 45-21	✓	o

Offensive Projections

Wake Forest

Pass Yards

151

Pass Attempts

32

Completions

17

Pass TDs

0.8

Rush Yards

201

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

1.1

Turnovers

1.0

Duke

Pass Yards

242

Pass Attempts

39

Completions

24

Pass TDs

1.7

Rush Yards

160

Rush Att

34

Rush TDs

1.1

Turnovers

1.0

First Half

19.2

Duke -4.2

Second Half

21.3

Duke -3.1

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 73%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 55.5

Model Play Line 45.5

Model Projection 55.5

Edge OVER by 10.0

OVER 79% Confidence

OVER 79%

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Wisconsin

-108

4-7 • ATS: 6-5 • O/U: 2-9

18.9

Raw: 15.0 • Adj: 18.9

+0

Nov 29 • 3:30PM ET

VS

O/U 37.5 Model: 31.5 (u)

Minnesota

-112

6-5 • ATS: 3-8 • O/U: 6-5

12.5

Raw: 19.4 • Adj: 12.5

+0

66.3%

33.7%

Spread Pick

Pick +10 (-364)(75% Cover Probability)

Away Favorite Edge 6.4 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 47.5 (-402)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 16.1 pts

Offensive Projections

Wisconsin

Pass Yards

166

Pass Attempts

35

Completions

19

Pass TDs

0.9

Rush Yards

160

Rush Att

34

Rush TDs

0.9

Turnovers

1.0

Minnesota

Pass Yards

218

Pass Attempts

39

Completions

24

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush Yards

162

Rush Att

33

Rush TDs

1.2

Turnovers

0.8

First Half

16.4

Minnesota -2.0

Second Half

18.1

Minnesota -2.5

Betting Overview

BEST BET · Spread · Pick +10 (-364) · LOW

Top recommended play highlighted below.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 3:30PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Favorite

70.4% hit

ML Segment

Away Favorite

72.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Pick +10 (-364)

+6.4

Model Prob: 75.0%
Market Implied: 78.4%

Total

UNDER 47.5 (-402)

+16.1

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 80.1%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +3.0
Total Delta: -4.0
Home Residual: -0.7
Away Residual: -5.4
Raw Total: 34.4
Adjusted Total: 31.4

Team Form & Stats

Wisconsin

Record 4-7 · ATS 6-5 · O/U 2-9

Model Score

18.9

Vegas Spread

+0

Passing Yds

166

Rushing Yds

160

Pass TDs

0.9

Rush TDs

0.9

Minnesota

Record 6-5 · ATS 3-8 · O/U 6-5

Model Score

12.5

Vegas Spread

+0

Passing Yds

218

Rushing Yds

162

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush TDs

1.2

Recent Game Log

Wisconsin

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Indiana	L 7-31	✓	u
Nov 8, 2025	vs Washington	W 13-10	✓	u
Oct 25, 2025	@ Oregon	L 7-21	✓	u
Oct 18, 2025	vs Ohio State	L 0-34	✗	u
Oct 11, 2025	vs Iowa	L 0-37	✗	u

Minnesota

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 14, 2025	@ Oregon	L 13-42	✗	o
Nov 1, 2025	vs Michigan State	W 23-20	✗	u
Oct 25, 2025	@ Iowa	L 3-41	✗	o
Oct 17, 2025	vs Nebraska	W 24-6	✓	u
Oct 11, 2025	vs Purdue	W 27-20	✗	u

Offensive Projections

Wisconsin

Pass Yards

166

Pass Attempts

35

Completions

19

Pass TDs

0.9

Rush Yards

160

Rush Att

34

Rush TDs

0.9

Turnovers

1.0

Minnesota

Pass Yards

218

Pass Attempts

39

Completions

24

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush Yards

162

Rush Att

33

Rush TDs

1.2

Turnovers

0.8

First Half

16.4

Minnesota -2.0

Second Half

18.1

Minnesota -2.5

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 75%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

Recommended Bets

SPREAD

Pick +10 (-364)

75%

Edge

+6.4 pts

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 37.5

Model Play Line 47.5

Model Projection 31.4

Edge UNDER by 16.1

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

#6

Oregon

-270

10-1 • ATS: 7-4 • O/U: 6-5

28.2

Raw: 24.2 • Adj: 28.2

-6.5

Nov 29 • 3:30PM ET

VS

O/U 51.5 Model: 52.5 (o)

Washington

+220

8-3 • ATS: 6-5 • O/U: 6-5

24.1

Raw: 23.0 • Adj: 24.1

+6.5

59.2%

40.8%

Spread Pick

Washington +16 (-344)(77% Cover Probability)

Home Dog Edge 2.4 pts

Total Pick

OVER 41.5 (-345)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 10.9 pts

Offensive Projections

Oregon

Pass Yards

194

Pass Attempts

31

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush Yards

203

Rush Att

40

Rush TDs

1.7

Turnovers

0.6

Washington

Pass Yards

193

Pass Attempts

30

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush Yards

221

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

1.6

Turnovers

0.7

First Half

22.0

Oregon -0.8

Second Half

25.2

Oregon -0.6

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 3:30PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Dog

55.4% hit

ML Segment

Away Favorite

72.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Washington +16 (-344)

+2.4

Model Prob: 77.4%
Market Implied: 77.5%

Conference Trend

Pick

40-33-2

54.8%

Total

OVER 41.5 (-345)

+10.9

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 77.5%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +1.5
Total Delta: +3.6
Home Residual: +1.6
Away Residual: +4.0
Raw Total: 47.2
Adjusted Total: 52.4

Team Form & Stats

Oregon

Record 10-1 · ATS 7-4 · O/U 6-5

#6

Model Score

28.2

Vegas Spread

-6.5

Passing Yds

194

Rushing Yds

203

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush TDs

1.7

Washington

Record 8-3 · ATS 6-5 · O/U 6-5

Model Score

24.1

Vegas Spread

+6.5

Passing Yds

193

Rushing Yds

221

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush TDs

1.6

Recent Game Log

Oregon

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 14, 2025	vs Minnesota	W 42-13	✓	o
Nov 8, 2025	@ Iowa	W 18-16	✗	u
Oct 25, 2025	vs Wisconsin	W 21-7	✗	u
Oct 18, 2025	@ Rutgers	W 56-10	✓	o
Oct 11, 2025	vs Indiana	L 20-30	✗	u

Washington

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Purdue	W 49-13	✓	o
Nov 8, 2025	@ Wisconsin	L 10-13	✗	u
Oct 25, 2025	vs Illinois	W 42-25	✓	o
Oct 18, 2025	@ Michigan	L 7-24	✗	u
Oct 10, 2025	vs Rutgers	W 38-19	✓	u

Offensive Projections

Oregon

Pass Yards

194

Pass Attempts

31

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush Yards

203

Rush Att

40

Rush TDs

1.7

Turnovers

0.6

Washington

Pass Yards

193

Pass Attempts

30

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush Yards

221

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

1.6

Turnovers

0.7

First Half

22.0

Oregon -0.8

Second Half

25.2

Oregon -0.6

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 77%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 51.5

Model Play Line 41.5

Model Projection 52.4

Edge OVER by 10.9

OVER 79% Confidence

OVER 79%

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Army

+235

5-5 • ATS: 4-6 • O/U: 3-7

20.8

Raw: 23.5 • Adj: 20.8

+7.5

Nov 29 • 3:30PM ET

VS

O/U 52.5 Model: 51 (u)

UTSA

-290

6-5 • ATS: 6-5 • O/U: 8-3

30.1

Raw: 25.3 • Adj: 30.1

-7.5

29.3%

70.7%

Spread Pick

UTSA +2.5 (-387)(68% Cover Probability)

Home Favorite Edge 1.8 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 62.5 (-380)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 11.6 pts

Offensive Projections

Army

Pass Yards

141

Pass Attempts

23

Completions

12

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush Yards

254

Rush Att

46

Rush TDs

2.1

Turnovers

0.9

UTSA

Pass Yards

269

Pass Attempts

37

Completions

25

Pass TDs

1.9

Rush Yards

181

Rush Att

34

Rush TDs

1.3

Turnovers

1.0

First Half

22.6

UTSA -1.6

Second Half

26.1

UTSA -0.3

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 3:30PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Favorite

55.7% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

80.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

UTSA +2.5 (-387)

+1.8

Model Prob: 68.0%
Market Implied: 79.5%

Conference Trend

Pick

35-31-2

53.0%

Total

UNDER 62.5 (-380)

+11.6

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 79.2%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +6.0
Total Delta: +0.9
Home Residual: +6.8
Away Residual: -5.3
Raw Total: 48.8
Adjusted Total: 50.9

Team Form & Stats

Army

Record 5-5 · ATS 4-6 · O/U 3-7

Model Score

20.8

Vegas Spread

+7.5

Passing Yds

141

Rushing Yds

254

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush TDs

2.1

UTSA

Record 6-5 · ATS 6-5 · O/U 8-3

Model Score

30.1

Vegas Spread

-7.5

Passing Yds

269

Rushing Yds

181

Pass TDs

1.9

Rush TDs

1.3

Recent Game Log

Army

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 8, 2025	vs Temple	W 14-13	✗	u
Nov 1, 2025	@ Air Force	W 20-17	✓	u
Oct 18, 2025	@ Tulane	L 17-24	✓	u
Oct 11, 2025	vs Charlotte	W 24-7	✗	u
Oct 4, 2025	@ UAB	W 31-13	✓	u

UTSA

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Charlotte	W 28-7	✓	u
Nov 6, 2025	@ South Florida	L 23-55	✗	o
Oct 30, 2025	vs Tulane	W 48-26	✓	o
Oct 18, 2025	@ North Texas	L 17-55	✗	o
Oct 11, 2025	vs Rice	W 61-13	✓	o

Offensive Projections

Army

Pass Yards

141

Pass Attempts

23

Completions

12

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush Yards

254

Rush Att

46

Rush TDs

2.1

Turnovers

0.9

UTSA

Pass Yards

269

Pass Attempts

37

Completions

25

Pass TDs

1.9

Rush Yards

181

Rush Att

34

Rush TDs

1.3

Turnovers

1.0

First Half

22.6

UTSA -1.6

Second Half

26.1

UTSA -0.3

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 68%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 52.5

Model Play Line 62.5

Model Projection 50.9

Edge UNDER by 11.6

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Cincinnati

+150

7-4 • ATS: 6-5 • O/U: 6-5

26.0

Raw: 22.7 • Adj: 26.0

+3.5

Nov 29 • 3:30PM ET

VS

O/U 56.5 Model: 49.5 (u)

TCU

-180

7-4 • ATS: 5-6 • O/U: 5-6

23.5

Raw: 24.1 • Adj: 23.5

-3.5

56.5%

43.5%

Spread Pick

TCU +6.5 (-447)(63% Cover Probability)

Away Dog Edge 1.0 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 66.5 (-292)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 17.0 pts

Offensive Projections

Cincinnati

Pass Yards

210

Pass Attempts

36

Completions

20

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush Yards

207

Rush Att

38

Rush TDs

1.3

Turnovers

0.8

TCU

Pass Yards

285

Pass Attempts

42

Completions

26

Pass TDs

2.0

Rush Yards

147

Rush Att

31

Rush TDs

1.2

Turnovers

1.3

First Half

22.2

TCU -0.6

Second Half

24.5

TCU -0.7

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 3:30PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Dog

48.3% hit

ML Segment

Away Dog

40.4% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

TCU +6.5 (-447)

-1.0

Model Prob: 63.2%
Market Implied: 81.7%

Conference Trend

Pick

34-37-1

47.9%

Total

UNDER 66.5 (-292)

+17.0

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 74.5%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: -4.2
Total Delta: -2.0
Home Residual: -4.7
Away Residual: +1.7
Raw Total: 46.8
Adjusted Total: 49.5

Team Form & Stats

Cincinnati

Record 7-4 · ATS 6-5 · O/U 6-5

Model Score

26.0

Vegas Spread

+3.5

Passing Yds

210

Rushing Yds

207

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush TDs

1.3

TCU

Record 7-4 · ATS 5-6 · O/U 5-6

Model Score

23.5

Vegas Spread

-3.5

Passing Yds

285

Rushing Yds

147

Pass TDs

2.0

Rush TDs

1.2

Recent Game Log

Cincinnati

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Arizona	L 24-30	✗	u
Nov 1, 2025	@ Utah	L 14-45	✗	o
Oct 25, 2025	vs Baylor	W 41-20	✓	u
Oct 18, 2025	@ Oklahoma State	W 49-17	✓	o
Oct 11, 2025	vs UCF	W 20-11	✗	u

TCU

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ BYU	L 13-44	✗	o
Nov 8, 2025	vs Iowa State	L 17-20	✗	u
Oct 25, 2025	@ West Virginia	W 23-17	✗	u
Oct 18, 2025	vs Baylor	W 42-36	✓	o
Oct 11, 2025	@ Kansas State	L 28-41	✗	o

Offensive Projections

Cincinnati

Pass Yards

210

Pass Attempts

36

Completions

20

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush Yards

207

Rush Att

38

Rush TDs

1.3

Turnovers

0.8

TCU

Pass Yards

285

Pass Attempts

42

Completions

26

Pass TDs

2.0

Rush Yards

147

Rush Att

31

Rush TDs

1.2

Turnovers

1.3

First Half

22.2

TCU -0.6

Second Half

24.5

TCU -0.7

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 63%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 56.5

Model Play Line 66.5

Model Projection 49.5

Edge UNDER by 17.0

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

LSU

+330

7-4 • ATS: 3-8 • O/U: 3-8

14.1

Raw: 17.8 • Adj: 14.1

+10

Nov 29 • 3:30PM ET

VS

O/U 36.5 Model: 35 (u)

#8

Oklahoma

-425

9-2 • ATS: 7-4 • O/U: 2-9

21.0

Raw: 19.8 • Adj: 21.0

-10

32.5%

67.5%

Spread Pick

Oklahoma -1.5 (-396)(76% Cover Probability)

Away Dog Edge 3.1 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 46.5 (-373)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 11.4 pts

Offensive Projections

LSU

Pass Yards

211

Pass Attempts

41

Completions

23

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

174

Rush Att

34

Rush TDs

0.9

Turnovers

1.1

Oklahoma

Pass Yards

137

Pass Attempts

32

Completions

17

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush Yards

230

Rush Att

44

Rush TDs

1.3

Turnovers

1.1

First Half

17.1

Oklahoma -1.5

Second Half

20.5

Oklahoma -0.5

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 3:30PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Dog

48.3% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

80.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Oklahoma -1.5 (-396)

-3.1

Model Prob: 75.6%
Market Implied: 79.8%

Conference Trend

Pick

30-28-4

51.7%

Total

UNDER 46.5 (-373)

+11.4

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 78.9%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +2.3
Total Delta: -2.2
Home Residual: +0.1
Away Residual: -3.6
Raw Total: 37.6
Adjusted Total: 35.1

Team Form & Stats

LSU

Record 7-4 · ATS 3-8 · O/U 3-8

Model Score

14.1

Vegas Spread

+10

Passing Yds

211

Rushing Yds

174

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush TDs

0.9

Oklahoma

Record 9-2 · ATS 7-4 · O/U 2-9

#8

Model Score

21.0

Vegas Spread

-10

Passing Yds

137

Rushing Yds

230

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush TDs

1.3

Recent Game Log

LSU

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Arkansas	W 23-22	✗	u
Nov 8, 2025	@ Alabama	L 9-20	✗	u
Oct 25, 2025	vs Texas A&M	L 25-49	✗	o
Oct 18, 2025	@ Vanderbilt	L 24-31	✗	o
Oct 11, 2025	vs South Carolina	W 20-10	✓	u

Oklahoma

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Alabama	W 23-21	✓	u
Nov 1, 2025	@ Tennessee	W 33-27	✓	o
Oct 25, 2025	vs Ole Miss	L 26-34	✗	o
Oct 18, 2025	@ South Carolina	W 26-7	✓	u
Oct 11, 2025	@ Texas	L 6-23	✗	u

Offensive Projections

LSU

Pass Yards

211

Pass Attempts

41

Completions

23

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

174

Rush Att

34

Rush TDs

0.9

Turnovers

1.1

Oklahoma

Pass Yards

137

Pass Attempts

32

Completions

17

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush Yards

230

Rush Att

44

Rush TDs

1.3

Turnovers

1.1

First Half

17.1

Oklahoma -1.5

Second Half

20.5

Oklahoma -0.5

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 76%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 36.5

Model Play Line 46.5

Model Projection 35.1

Edge UNDER by 11.4

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Kennesaw State

-130

8-3 • ATS: 7-4 • O/U: 4-7

27.4

Raw: 15.3 • Adj: 27.4

-2.5

Nov 29 • 3:30PM ET

VS

O/U 55.5 Model: 55 (u)

Liberty

+110

4-7 • ATS: 3-8 • O/U: 5-6

27.6

Raw: 24.1 • Adj: 27.6

+2.5

49.4%

50.6%

Spread Pick

Liberty +12.5 (-412)(78% Cover Probability)

Home Dog Edge 2.3 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 65.5 (-324)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 10.4 pts

Offensive Projections

Kennesaw State

Pass Yards

145

Pass Attempts

31

Completions

16

Pass TDs

0.7

Rush Yards

187

Rush Att

40

Rush TDs

1.1

Turnovers

1.1

Liberty

Pass Yards

129

Pass Attempts

22

Completions

13

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

278

Rush Att

50

Rush TDs

1.9

Turnovers

0.9

First Half

18.4

Liberty -4.6

Second Half

20.9

Liberty -4.3

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 3:30PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Dog

55.4% hit

ML Segment

Home Dog

47.9% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Liberty +12.5 (-412)

+2.3

Model Prob: 78.4%
Market Implied: 80.5%

Conference Trend

Pick

41-21-1

66.1%

Total

UNDER 65.5 (-324)

+10.4

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 76.4%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +4.0
Total Delta: +6.0
Home Residual: +2.1
Away Residual: +8.3
Raw Total: 39.4
Adjusted Total: 55.1

Team Form & Stats

Kennesaw State

Record 8-3 · ATS 7-4 · O/U 4-7

Model Score

27.4

Vegas Spread

-2.5

Passing Yds

145

Rushing Yds

187

Pass TDs

0.7

Rush TDs

1.1

Liberty

Record 4-7 · ATS 3-8 · O/U 5-6

Model Score

27.6

Vegas Spread

+2.5

Passing Yds

129

Rushing Yds

278

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush TDs

1.9

Recent Game Log

Kennesaw State

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Jacksonville State	L 26-35	✗	o
Nov 8, 2025	@ New Mexico State	W 24-21	✗	u
Oct 28, 2025	vs UTEP	W 33-20	✓	o
Oct 21, 2025	@ Florida International	W 45-26	✓	o
Oct 9, 2025	vs Louisiana Tech	W 35-7	✓	u

Liberty

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Florida International	L 27-34	✗	o
Nov 8, 2025	vs Missouri State	L 17-21	✗	u
Nov 1, 2025	vs Delaware	W 59-30	✓	o
Oct 8, 2025	@ UTEP	W 19-8	✓	u
Sep 27, 2025	@ Old Dominion	L 7-21	✓	u

Offensive Projections

Kennesaw State

Pass Yards

145

Pass Attempts

31

Completions

16

Pass TDs

0.7

Rush Yards

187

Rush Att

40

Rush TDs

1.1

Turnovers

1.1

Liberty

Pass Yards

129

Pass Attempts

22

Completions

13

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

278

Rush Att

50

Rush TDs

1.9

Turnovers

0.9

First Half

18.4

Liberty -4.6

Second Half

20.9

Liberty -4.3

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 78%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 55.5

Model Play Line 65.5

Model Projection 55.1

Edge UNDER by 10.4

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Penn State

-520

5-6 • ATS: 4-7 • O/U: 7-4

29.2

Raw: 25.8 • Adj: 29.2

-13.5

Nov 29 • 3:30PM ET

VS

O/U 56.5 Model: 48 (u)

Rutgers

+390

5-6 • ATS: 5-6 • O/U: 6-5

18.9

Raw: 19.6 • Adj: 18.9

+13.5

74.4%

25.6%

Spread Pick

Rutgers +23.5 (-349)(78% Cover Probability)

Home Dog Edge 3.2 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 66.5 (-337)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 18.3 pts

Offensive Projections

Penn State

Pass Yards

176

Pass Attempts

26

Completions

15

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush Yards

228

Rush Att

43

Rush TDs

1.8

Turnovers

0.7

Rutgers

Pass Yards

168

Pass Attempts

31

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

207

Rush Att

40

Rush TDs

1.2

Turnovers

0.7

First Half

21.1

Penn State -2.7

Second Half

24.1

Penn State -3.5

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 3:30PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Dog

55.4% hit

ML Segment

Away Favorite

72.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Rutgers +23.5 (-349)

+3.2

Model Prob: 78.4%
Market Implied: 77.7%

Conference Trend

Pick

40-33-2

54.8%

Total

UNDER 66.5 (-337)

+18.3

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 77.1%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +1.9
Total Delta: -3.0
Home Residual: -3.8
Away Residual: -0.8
Raw Total: 45.4
Adjusted Total: 48.2

Team Form & Stats

Penn State

Record 5-6 · ATS 4-7 · O/U 7-4

Model Score

29.2

Vegas Spread

-13.5

Passing Yds

176

Rushing Yds

228

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush TDs

1.8

Rutgers

Record 5-6 · ATS 5-6 · O/U 6-5

Model Score

18.9

Vegas Spread

+13.5

Passing Yds

168

Rushing Yds

207

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush TDs

1.2

Recent Game Log

Penn State

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Michigan State	W 28-10	✓	u
Nov 8, 2025	vs Indiana	L 24-27	✓	o
Nov 1, 2025	@ Ohio State	L 14-38	✗	o
Oct 18, 2025	@ Iowa	L 24-25	✓	o
Oct 11, 2025	vs Northwestern	L 21-22	✗	u

Rutgers

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 8, 2025	vs Maryland	W 35-20	✓	u
Nov 1, 2025	@ Illinois	L 13-35	✗	u
Oct 25, 2025	@ Purdue	W 27-24	✓	u
Oct 18, 2025	vs Oregon	L 10-56	✗	o
Oct 10, 2025	@ Washington	L 19-38	✗	u

Offensive Projections

Penn State

Pass Yards

176

Pass Attempts

26

Completions

15

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush Yards

228

Rush Att

43

Rush TDs

1.8

Turnovers

0.7

Rutgers

Pass Yards

168

Pass Attempts

31

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

207

Rush Att

40

Rush TDs

1.2

Turnovers

0.7

First Half

21.1

Penn State -2.7

Second Half

24.1

Penn State -3.5

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 78%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 56.5

Model Play Line 66.5

Model Projection 48.2

Edge UNDER by 18.3

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

#21

James Madison

-2100

10-1 • ATS: 7-4 • O/U: 5-6

34.3

Raw: 21.0 • Adj: 34.3

-21.5

Nov 29 • 3:45PM ET

VS

O/U 53.5 Model: 53 (u)

Coastal Carolina

+1100

6-5 • ATS: 5-6 • O/U: 7-4

18.8

Raw: 16.5 • Adj: 18.8

+21.5

84.1%

15.9%

Spread Pick

Coastal Carolina +31.5 (-375)(78% Cover Probability)

Home Dog Edge 6.1 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 63.5 (-350)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 10.4 pts

Offensive Projections

James Madison

Pass Yards

170

Pass Attempts

33

Completions

17

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

198

Rush Att

37

Rush TDs

1.3

Turnovers

0.6

Coastal Carolina

Pass Yards

131

Pass Attempts

32

Completions

14

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush Yards

197

Rush Att

35

Rush TDs

1.0

Turnovers

1.0

First Half

17.1

James Madison -1.9

Second Half

20.4

James Madison -2.6

Betting Overview

BEST BET · Spread · Coastal Carolina +31.5 (-375) · LOW

Top recommended play highlighted below.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 3:45PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Dog

55.4% hit

ML Segment

Away Favorite

72.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Coastal Carolina +31.5 (-375)

+6.1

Model Prob: 78.4%
Market Implied: 78.9%

Conference Trend

Pick

32-38-2

45.7%

Total

UNDER 63.5 (-350)

+10.4

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 77.8%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +2.4
Total Delta: +6.0
Home Residual: +6.0
Away Residual: +9.3
Raw Total: 37.5
Adjusted Total: 53.1

Team Form & Stats

James Madison

Record 10-1 · ATS 7-4 · O/U 5-6

#21

Model Score

34.3

Vegas Spread

-21.5

Passing Yds

170

Rushing Yds

198

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush TDs

1.3

Coastal Carolina

Record 6-5 · ATS 5-6 · O/U 7-4

Model Score

18.8

Vegas Spread

+21.5

Passing Yds

131

Rushing Yds

197

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush TDs

1.0

Recent Game Log

James Madison

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs App State	W 58-10	✓	o
Nov 8, 2025	@ Marshall	W 35-23	✗	o
Oct 28, 2025	@ Texas State	W 52-20	✓	o
Oct 18, 2025	vs Old Dominion	W 63-27	✓	o
Oct 11, 2025	vs Louisiana	W 24-14	✗	u

Coastal Carolina

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Georgia Southern	L 40-45	✗	o
Nov 8, 2025	vs Georgia State	W 40-27	✓	o
Oct 30, 2025	vs Marshall	W 44-27	✓	o
Oct 18, 2025	@ App State	W 45-37	✓	o
Oct 11, 2025	vs UL Monroe	W 23-8	✓	u

Offensive Projections

James Madison

Pass Yards

170

Pass Attempts

33

Completions

17

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

198

Rush Att

37

Rush TDs

1.3

Turnovers

0.6

Coastal Carolina

Pass Yards

131

Pass Attempts

32

Completions

14

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush Yards

197

Rush Att

35

Rush TDs

1.0

Turnovers

1.0

First Half

17.1

James Madison -1.9

Second Half

20.4

James Madison -2.6

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 78%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

Recommended Bets

SPREAD

Coastal Carolina +31.5 (-375)

78%

Edge

+6.1 pts

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 53.5

Model Play Line 63.5

Model Projection 53.1

Edge UNDER by 10.4

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Florida State

-108

5-6 • ATS: 5-6 • O/U: 4-7

19.6

Raw: 17.7 • Adj: 19.6

+1.5

Nov 29 • 4:30PM ET

VS

O/U 50.5 Model: 40.5 (u)

Florida

-112

3-8 • ATS: 4-7 • O/U: 4-7

21.0

Raw: 23.3 • Adj: 21.0

-1.5

46.4%

53.6%

Spread Pick

Florida +8.5 (-465)(73% Cover Probability)

Away Dog Edge 0.0 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 60.5 (-323)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 19.9 pts

Offensive Projections

Florida State

Pass Yards

165

Pass Attempts

35

Completions

17

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

197

Rush Att

39

Rush TDs

1.1

Turnovers

1.2

Florida

Pass Yards

264

Pass Attempts

36

Completions

23

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush Yards

178

Rush Att

36

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

1.4

First Half

19.5

Florida -3.7

Second Half

21.5

Florida -1.9

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 4:30PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Dog

48.3% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

80.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Florida +8.5 (-465)

-0.0

Model Prob: 72.7%
Market Implied: 82.3%

Conference Trend

Pick

36-37-3

49.3%

Opponent

30-28-4

51.7%

Total

UNDER 60.5 (-323)

+19.9

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 76.4%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: -3.2
Total Delta: -5.0
Home Residual: -6.4
Away Residual: -1.3
Raw Total: 41.0
Adjusted Total: 40.6

Team Form & Stats

Florida State

Record 5-6 · ATS 5-6 · O/U 4-7

Model Score

19.6

Vegas Spread

+1.5

Passing Yds

165

Rushing Yds

197

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush TDs

1.1

Florida

Record 3-8 · ATS 4-7 · O/U 4-7

Model Score

21.0

Vegas Spread

-1.5

Passing Yds

264

Rushing Yds

178

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush TDs

1.5

Recent Game Log

Florida State

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Virginia Tech	W 34-14	✓	u
Nov 8, 2025	@ Clemson	L 10-24	✗	u
Nov 1, 2025	vs Wake Forest	W 42-7	✓	u
Oct 18, 2025	@ Stanford	L 13-20	✗	u
Oct 11, 2025	vs Pittsburgh	L 31-34	✗	o

Florida

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Ole Miss	L 24-34	✓	o
Nov 8, 2025	@ Kentucky	L 7-38	✗	o
Nov 1, 2025	vs Georgia	L 20-24	✓	u
Oct 18, 2025	vs Mississippi State	W 23-21	✗	u
Oct 11, 2025	@ Texas A&M	L 17-34	✗	o

Offensive Projections

Florida State

Pass Yards

165

Pass Attempts

35

Completions

17

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

197

Rush Att

39

Rush TDs

1.1

Turnovers

1.2

Florida

Pass Yards

264

Pass Attempts

36

Completions

23

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush Yards

178

Rush Att

36

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

1.4

First Half

19.5

Florida -3.7

Second Half

21.5

Florida -1.9

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 73%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 50.5

Model Play Line 60.5

Model Projection 40.6

Edge UNDER by 19.9

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Oregon State

+455

2-9 • ATS: 3-8 • O/U: 4-7

13.8

Raw: 19.7 • Adj: 13.8

+13.5

Nov 29 • 6:30PM ET

VS

O/U 41.5 Model: 38.5 (u)

Washington State

-625

5-6 • ATS: 7-4 • O/U: 3-8

24.5

Raw: 24.9 • Adj: 24.5

-13.5

26.2%

73.8%

Spread Pick

Washington State -3.5 (-389)(78% Cover Probability)

Away Dog Edge 2.7 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 51.5 (-399)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 13.2 pts

Offensive Projections

Oregon State

Pass Yards

153

Pass Attempts

29

Completions

16

Pass TDs

0.9

Rush Yards

229

Rush Att

43

Rush TDs

1.6

Turnovers

0.8

Washington State

Pass Yards

194

Pass Attempts

28

Completions

17

Pass TDs

1.7

Rush Yards

236

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

0.8

First Half

20.8

Washington State -2.2

Second Half

23.9

Washington State -3.1

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 6:30PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Dog

48.3% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

80.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Washington State -3.5 (-389)

-2.7

Model Prob: 78.4%
Market Implied: 79.6%

Conference Trend

Pick

8-3

72.7%

Total

UNDER 51.5 (-399)

+13.2

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 80.0%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +2.8
Total Delta: -5.3
Home Residual: -2.0
Away Residual: -6.8
Raw Total: 44.6
Adjusted Total: 38.3

Team Form & Stats

Oregon State

Record 2-9 · ATS 3-8 · O/U 4-7

Model Score

13.8

Vegas Spread

+13.5

Passing Yds

153

Rushing Yds

229

Pass TDs

0.9

Rush TDs

1.6

Washington State

Record 5-6 · ATS 7-4 · O/U 3-8

Model Score

24.5

Vegas Spread

-13.5

Passing Yds

194

Rushing Yds

236

Pass TDs

1.7

Rush TDs

1.5

Recent Game Log

Oregon State

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Tulsa	L 14-31	✗	u
Nov 8, 2025	vs Sam Houston	L 17-21	✗	u
Nov 1, 2025	vs Washington State	W 10-7	✓	u
Oct 11, 2025	vs Wake Forest	L 14-39	✗	o
Oct 4, 2025	@ App State	L 23-27	✗	u

Washington State

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Louisiana Tech	W 28-3	✓	u
Nov 1, 2025	@ Oregon State	L 7-10	✗	u
Oct 25, 2025	vs Toledo	W 28-7	✓	u
Oct 18, 2025	@ Virginia	L 20-22	✓	u
Oct 11, 2025	@ Ole Miss	L 21-24	✓	u

Offensive Projections

Oregon State

Pass Yards

153

Pass Attempts

29

Completions

16

Pass TDs

0.9

Rush Yards

229

Rush Att

43

Rush TDs

1.6

Turnovers

0.8

Washington State

Pass Yards

194

Pass Attempts

28

Completions

17

Pass TDs

1.7

Rush Yards

236

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

0.8

First Half

20.8

Washington State -2.2

Second Half

23.9

Washington State -3.1

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 78%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 41.5

Model Play Line 51.5

Model Projection 38.3

Edge UNDER by 13.2

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Virginia Tech

+295

3-8 • ATS: 3-8 • O/U: 5-6

22.2

Raw: 20.9 • Adj: 22.2

+9.5

Nov 29 • 7:00PM ET

VS

O/U 52.5 Model: 48 (u)

#19

Virginia

-375

9-2 • ATS: 7-4 • O/U: 4-7

25.6

Raw: 16.8 • Adj: 25.6

-9.5

41.5%

58.5%

Spread Pick

Virginia Tech +19 (-328)(77% Cover Probability)

Away Dog Edge 6.0 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 62.5 (-325)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 14.7 pts

Offensive Projections

Virginia Tech

Pass Yards

135

Pass Attempts

26

Completions

14

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush Yards

247

Rush Att

49

Rush TDs

1.4

Turnovers

0.9

Virginia

Pass Yards

179

Pass Attempts

38

Completions

21

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

189

Rush Att

35

Rush TDs

1.2

Turnovers

1.1

First Half

18.3

Virginia Tech -3.1

Second Half

19.4

Virginia Tech -1.0

Betting Overview

BEST BET · Spread · Virginia Tech +19 (-328) · LOW

Top recommended play highlighted below.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 7:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Dog

48.3% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

80.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Virginia Tech +19 (-328)

+6.0

Model Prob: 77.4%
Market Implied: 76.6%

Conference Trend

Pick

36-37-3

49.3%

Total

UNDER 62.5 (-325)

+14.7

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 76.5%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +1.3
Total Delta: +1.2
Home Residual: +2.0
Away Residual: -0.1
Raw Total: 37.7
Adjusted Total: 47.8

Team Form & Stats

Virginia Tech

Record 3-8 · ATS 3-8 · O/U 5-6

Model Score

22.2

Vegas Spread

+9.5

Passing Yds

135

Rushing Yds

247

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush TDs

1.4

Virginia

Record 9-2 · ATS 7-4 · O/U 4-7

#19

Model Score

25.6

Vegas Spread

-9.5

Passing Yds

179

Rushing Yds

189

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush TDs

1.2

Recent Game Log

Virginia Tech

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Florida State	L 14-34	✗	u
Nov 1, 2025	vs Louisville	L 16-28	✗	u
Oct 24, 2025	vs California	W 42-34	✓	o
Oct 11, 2025	@ Georgia Tech	L 20-35	✗	u
Oct 4, 2025	vs Wake Forest	L 23-30	✗	o

Virginia

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Duke	W 34-17	✓	u
Nov 8, 2025	vs Wake Forest	L 9-16	✗	u
Nov 1, 2025	@ California	W 31-21	✓	u
Oct 25, 2025	@ North Carolina	W 17-16	✗	u
Oct 18, 2025	vs Washington State	W 22-20	✗	u

Offensive Projections

Virginia Tech

Pass Yards

135

Pass Attempts

26

Completions

14

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush Yards

247

Rush Att

49

Rush TDs

1.4

Turnovers

0.9

Virginia

Pass Yards

179

Pass Attempts

38

Completions

21

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

189

Rush Att

35

Rush TDs

1.2

Turnovers

1.1

First Half

18.3

Virginia Tech -3.1

Second Half

19.4

Virginia Tech -1.0

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 77%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

Recommended Bets

SPREAD

Virginia Tech +19 (-328)

77%

Edge

+6.0 pts

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 52.5

Model Play Line 62.5

Model Projection 47.8

Edge UNDER by 14.7

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Maryland

+150

4-7 • ATS: 5-6 • O/U: 4-7

19.3

Raw: 18.0 • Adj: 19.3

+4

Nov 29 • 7:00PM ET

VS

O/U 48.5 Model: 39.5 (u)

Michigan State

-180

3-8 • ATS: 6-5 • O/U: 6-5

20.1

Raw: 16.7 • Adj: 20.1

-4

47.6%

52.4%

Spread Pick

Michigan State +5.5 (-381)(60% Cover Probability)

Away Dog Edge 3.1 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 58.5 (-330)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 19.1 pts

Offensive Projections

Maryland

Pass Yards

165

Pass Attempts

31

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

195

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

1.0

Turnovers

1.0

Michigan State

Pass Yards

158

Pass Attempts

35

Completions

17

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush Yards

175

Rush Att

35

Rush TDs

0.9

Turnovers

1.2

First Half

15.7

Maryland -0.5

Second Half

19.1

Maryland -0.7

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 7:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Dog

48.3% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

80.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Michigan State +5.5 (-381)

-3.1

Model Prob: 59.5%
Market Implied: 79.2%

Conference Trend

Pick

40-33-2

54.8%

Total

UNDER 58.5 (-330)

+19.1

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 76.7%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +0.8
Total Delta: -3.4
Home Residual: -2.0
Away Residual: -3.3
Raw Total: 34.8
Adjusted Total: 39.4

Team Form & Stats

Maryland

Record 4-7 · ATS 5-6 · O/U 4-7

Model Score

19.3

Vegas Spread

+4

Passing Yds

165

Rushing Yds

195

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush TDs

1.0

Michigan State

Record 3-8 · ATS 6-5 · O/U 6-5

Model Score

20.1

Vegas Spread

-4

Passing Yds

158

Rushing Yds

175

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush TDs

0.9

Recent Game Log

Maryland

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Illinois	L 6-24	✗	u
Nov 8, 2025	@ Rutgers	L 20-35	✗	u
Nov 1, 2025	vs Indiana	L 10-55	✗	o
Oct 18, 2025	@ UCLA	L 17-20	✓	u
Oct 11, 2025	vs Nebraska	L 31-34	✓	o

Michigan State

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Penn State	L 10-28	✗	u
Nov 1, 2025	@ Minnesota	L 20-23	✓	u
Oct 25, 2025	vs Michigan	L 20-31	✓	o
Oct 18, 2025	@ Indiana	L 13-38	✓	o
Oct 11, 2025	vs UCLA	L 13-38	✗	u

Offensive Projections

Maryland

Pass Yards

165

Pass Attempts

31

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

195

Rush Att

42

Rush TDs

1.0

Turnovers

1.0

Michigan State

Pass Yards

158

Pass Attempts

35

Completions

17

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush Yards

175

Rush Att

35

Rush TDs

0.9

Turnovers

1.2

First Half

15.7

Maryland -0.5

Second Half

19.1

Maryland -0.7

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 60%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 48.5

Model Play Line 58.5

Model Projection 39.4

Edge UNDER by 19.1

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Rice

+1800

5-6 • ATS: 5-6 • O/U: 7-4

17.8

Raw: 19.2 • Adj: 17.8

+28

Nov 29 • 7:00PM ET

VS

O/U 60.5 Model: 61 (o)

South Florida

-5000

8-3 • ATS: 7-4 • O/U: 7-4

43.4

Raw: 30.5 • Adj: 43.4

-28

8.7%

91.3%

Spread Pick

South Florida -19 (-347)(76% Cover Probability)

Away Dog Edge 2.4 pts

Total Pick

OVER 50.5 (-357)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 10.7 pts

Offensive Projections

Rice

Pass Yards

224

Pass Attempts

45

Completions

25

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush Yards

174

Rush Att

35

Rush TDs

1.0

Turnovers

1.2

South Florida

Pass Yards

128

Pass Attempts

25

Completions

13

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush Yards

346

Rush Att

51

Rush TDs

2.4

Turnovers

0.8

First Half

23.9

South Florida -5.5

Second Half

25.9

South Florida -5.7

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 7:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Dog

48.3% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

80.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

South Florida -19 (-347)

-2.4

Model Prob: 76.1%
Market Implied: 77.6%

Conference Trend

Pick

35-31-2

53.0%

Total

OVER 50.5 (-357)

+10.7

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 78.1%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +6.0
Total Delta: +6.0
Home Residual: +13.0
Away Residual: +0.3
Raw Total: 49.7
Adjusted Total: 61.2

Team Form & Stats

Rice

Record 5-6 · ATS 5-6 · O/U 7-4

Model Score

17.8

Vegas Spread

+28

Passing Yds

224

Rushing Yds

174

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush TDs

1.0

South Florida

Record 8-3 · ATS 7-4 · O/U 7-4

Model Score

43.4

Vegas Spread

-28

Passing Yds

128

Rushing Yds

346

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush TDs

2.4

Recent Game Log

Rice

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 8, 2025	vs UAB	W 24-17	✓	u
Oct 31, 2025	vs Memphis	L 14-38	✗	o
Oct 25, 2025	vs UConn	W 37-34	✓	o
Oct 11, 2025	@ UTSA	L 13-61	✗	o
Oct 4, 2025	vs Florida Atlantic	L 21-27	✗	u

South Florida

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Navy	L 38-41	✗	o
Nov 6, 2025	vs UTSA	W 55-23	✓	o
Oct 25, 2025	@ Memphis	L 31-34	✗	o
Oct 18, 2025	vs Florida Atlantic	W 48-13	✓	u
Oct 10, 2025	@ North Texas	W 63-36	✓	o

Offensive Projections

Rice

Pass Yards

224

Pass Attempts

45

Completions

25

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush Yards

174

Rush Att

35

Rush TDs

1.0

Turnovers

1.2

South Florida

Pass Yards

128

Pass Attempts

25

Completions

13

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush Yards

346

Rush Att

51

Rush TDs

2.4

Turnovers

0.8

First Half

23.9

South Florida -5.5

Second Half

25.9

South Florida -5.7

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 76%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 60.5

Model Play Line 50.5

Model Projection 61.2

Edge OVER by 10.7

OVER 79% Confidence

OVER 79%

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Northwestern

+215

6-5 • ATS: 7-4 • O/U: 6-5

19.9

Raw: 13.0 • Adj: 19.9

+7

Nov 29 • 7:30PM ET

VS

O/U 45 Model: 45 (o)

Illinois

-265

7-4 • ATS: 7-4 • O/U: 5-6

25.2

Raw: 24.1 • Adj: 25.2

-7

36.8%

63.2%

Spread Pick

Illinois +2.5 (-351)(66% Cover Probability)

Away Dog Edge 1.7 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 56.5 (-326)(64% Hit Probability)

Edge 11.5 pts

Offensive Projections

Northwestern

Pass Yards

161

Pass Attempts

38

Completions

20

Pass TDs

0.7

Rush Yards

170

Rush Att

34

Rush TDs

0.9

Turnovers

1.3

Illinois

Pass Yards

224

Pass Attempts

37

Completions

21

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush Yards

177

Rush Att

34

Rush TDs

1.7

Turnovers

0.8

First Half

17.4

Illinois -5.8

Second Half

19.7

Illinois -5.3

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 7:30PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Dog

48.3% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

80.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: LOW

Spread

Illinois +2.5 (-351)

-1.7

Model Prob: 66.5%
Market Implied: 77.8%

Conference Trend

Pick

40-33-2

54.8%

Total

UNDER 56.5 (-326)

+11.5

Model Prob: 64.1%
Market Implied: 76.5%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: -4.9
Total Delta: +4.5
Home Residual: -0.3
Away Residual: +7.0
Raw Total: 37.0
Adjusted Total: 45.0

Team Form & Stats

Northwestern

Record 6-5 · ATS 7-4 · O/U 6-5

Model Score

19.9

Vegas Spread

+7

Passing Yds

161

Rushing Yds

170

Pass TDs

0.7

Rush TDs

0.9

Illinois

Record 7-4 · ATS 7-4 · O/U 5-6

Model Score

25.2

Vegas Spread

-7

Passing Yds

224

Rushing Yds

177

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush TDs

1.7

Recent Game Log

Northwestern

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Michigan	L 22-24	✓	o
Nov 7, 2025	@ USC	L 17-38	✗	o
Oct 25, 2025	@ Nebraska	L 21-28	✗	o
Oct 18, 2025	vs Purdue	W 19-0	✓	u
Oct 11, 2025	@ Penn State	W 22-21	✓	u

Illinois

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Maryland	W 24-6	✓	u
Nov 1, 2025	vs Rutgers	W 35-13	✓	u
Oct 25, 2025	@ Washington	L 25-42	✗	o
Oct 11, 2025	vs Ohio State	L 16-34	✗	u
Oct 4, 2025	@ Purdue	W 43-27	✓	o

Offensive Projections

Northwestern

Pass Yards

161

Pass Attempts

38

Completions

20

Pass TDs

0.7

Rush Yards

170

Rush Att

34

Rush TDs

0.9

Turnovers

1.3

Illinois

Pass Yards

224

Pass Attempts

37

Completions

21

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush Yards

177

Rush Att

34

Rush TDs

1.7

Turnovers

0.8

First Half

17.4

Illinois -5.8

Second Half

19.7

Illinois -5.3

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 66%

Total Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 64%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 45

Model Play Line 56.5

Model Projection 45.0

Edge UNDER by 11.5

UNDER 64% Confidence

OVER 36%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

UCLA

+950

3-8 • ATS: 3-8 • O/U: 6-5

19.8

Raw: 14.8 • Adj: 19.8

+21.5

Nov 29 • 7:30PM ET

VS

O/U 59.5 Model: 55.5 (u)

#16

USC

-1650

8-3 • ATS: 5-6 • O/U: 6-5

35.9

Raw: 30.5 • Adj: 35.9

-21.5

13.7%

86.3%

Spread Pick

UCLA +30.5 (-337)(76% Cover Probability)

Away Dog Edge 5.4 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 69.5 (-329)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 13.8 pts

Offensive Projections

UCLA

Pass Yards

200

Pass Attempts

40

Completions

23

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

165

Rush Att

31

Rush TDs

0.6

Turnovers

1.1

USC

Pass Yards

285

Pass Attempts

38

Completions

27

Pass TDs

2.1

Rush Yards

202

Rush Att

36

Rush TDs

1.7

Turnovers

1.0

First Half

20.9

USC -7.1

Second Half

24.5

USC -8.7

Betting Overview

BEST BET · Spread · UCLA +30.5 (-337) · LOW

Top recommended play highlighted below.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 7:30PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Dog

48.3% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

80.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

UCLA +30.5 (-337)

+5.4

Model Prob: 76.1%
Market Implied: 77.1%

Conference Trend

Pick

40-33-2

54.8%

Total

UNDER 69.5 (-329)

+13.8

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 76.7%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: -1.7
Total Delta: +1.9
Home Residual: +0.1
Away Residual: +2.7
Raw Total: 45.3
Adjusted Total: 55.7

Team Form & Stats

UCLA

Record 3-8 · ATS 3-8 · O/U 6-5

Model Score

19.8

Vegas Spread

+21.5

Passing Yds

200

Rushing Yds

165

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush TDs

0.6

USC

Record 8-3 · ATS 5-6 · O/U 6-5

#16

Model Score

35.9

Vegas Spread

-21.5

Passing Yds

285

Rushing Yds

202

Pass TDs

2.1

Rush TDs

1.7

Recent Game Log

UCLA

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Ohio State	L 10-48	✗	o
Nov 8, 2025	vs Nebraska	L 21-28	✗	o
Oct 25, 2025	@ Indiana	L 6-56	✗	o
Oct 18, 2025	vs Maryland	W 20-17	✗	u
Oct 11, 2025	@ Michigan State	W 38-13	✓	u

USC

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Iowa	W 26-21	✗	u
Nov 7, 2025	vs Northwestern	W 38-17	✓	o
Nov 1, 2025	@ Nebraska	W 21-17	✗	u
Oct 18, 2025	@ Notre Dame	L 24-34	✓	u
Oct 11, 2025	vs Michigan	W 31-13	✓	u

Offensive Projections

UCLA

Pass Yards

200

Pass Attempts

40

Completions

23

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

165

Rush Att

31

Rush TDs

0.6

Turnovers

1.1

USC

Pass Yards

285

Pass Attempts

38

Completions

27

Pass TDs

2.1

Rush Yards

202

Rush Att

36

Rush TDs

1.7

Turnovers

1.0

First Half

20.9

USC -7.1

Second Half

24.5

USC -8.7

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 76%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

Recommended Bets

SPREAD

UCLA +30.5 (-337)

76%

Edge

+5.4 pts

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 59.5

Model Play Line 69.5

Model Projection 55.7

Edge UNDER by 13.8

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

#10

Alabama

-230

9-2 • ATS: 7-4 • O/U: 4-7

23.2

Raw: 21.6 • Adj: 23.2

-6

Nov 29 • 7:30PM ET

VS

O/U 46.5 Model: 40.5 (u)

Auburn

+190

5-6 • ATS: 4-7 • O/U: 4-7

17.4

Raw: 21.2 • Adj: 17.4

+6

63.3%

36.7%

Spread Pick

Auburn +15.5 (-394)(77% Cover Probability)

Home Dog Edge 0.1 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 56.5 (-320)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 15.9 pts

Offensive Projections

Alabama

Pass Yards

187

Pass Attempts

33

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

203

Rush Att

39

Rush TDs

1.6

Turnovers

1.1

Auburn

Pass Yards

191

Pass Attempts

33

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush Yards

223

Rush Att

41

Rush TDs

1.1

Turnovers

1.1

First Half

19.8

Alabama -0.6

Second Half

23.1

Auburn -0.3

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 7:30PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Dog

55.4% hit

ML Segment

Away Favorite

72.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Auburn +15.5 (-394)

+0.1

Model Prob: 77.4%
Market Implied: 79.8%

Conference Trend

Pick

30-28-4

51.7%

Total

UNDER 56.5 (-320)

+15.9

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 76.2%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +4.1
Total Delta: -3.4
Home Residual: -6.2
Away Residual: +0.5
Raw Total: 42.8
Adjusted Total: 40.6

Team Form & Stats

Alabama

Record 9-2 · ATS 7-4 · O/U 4-7

#10

Model Score

23.2

Vegas Spread

-6

Passing Yds

187

Rushing Yds

203

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush TDs

1.6

Auburn

Record 5-6 · ATS 4-7 · O/U 4-7

Model Score

17.4

Vegas Spread

+6

Passing Yds

191

Rushing Yds

223

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush TDs

1.1

Recent Game Log

Alabama

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Oklahoma	L 21-23	✗	u
Nov 8, 2025	vs LSU	W 20-9	✓	u
Oct 25, 2025	@ South Carolina	W 29-22	✗	o
Oct 18, 2025	vs Tennessee	W 37-20	✓	u
Oct 11, 2025	@ Missouri	W 27-24	✗	u

Auburn

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 8, 2025	@ Vanderbilt	L 38-45	✗	o
Nov 1, 2025	vs Kentucky	L 3-10	✓	u
Oct 25, 2025	@ Arkansas	W 33-24	✓	o
Oct 18, 2025	vs Missouri	L 17-23	✗	u
Oct 11, 2025	vs Georgia	L 10-20	✗	u

Offensive Projections

Alabama

Pass Yards

187

Pass Attempts

33

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

203

Rush Att

39

Rush TDs

1.6

Turnovers

1.1

Auburn

Pass Yards

191

Pass Attempts

33

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush Yards

223

Rush Att

41

Rush TDs

1.1

Turnovers

1.1

First Half

19.8

Alabama -0.6

Second Half

23.1

Auburn -0.3

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 77%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 46.5

Model Play Line 56.5

Model Projection 40.6

Edge UNDER by 15.9

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Charlotte

+2200

1-10 • ATS: 5-6 • O/U: 6-5

12.5

Raw: 19.6 • Adj: 12.5

+29.5

Nov 29 • 7:30PM ET

VS

O/U 53.5 Model: 47.5 (u)

#24

Tulane

-8000

9-2 • ATS: 5-5-1 • O/U: 4-7

35.1

Raw: 24.7 • Adj: 35.1

-29.5

7.8%

92.2%

Spread Pick

Charlotte +39.5 (-344)(78% Cover Probability)

Away Dog Edge 6.9 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 62.5 (-380)(77% Hit Probability)

Edge 15.0 pts

Offensive Projections

Charlotte

Pass Yards

206

Pass Attempts

34

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

167

Rush Att

33

Rush TDs

1.1

Turnovers

1.1

Tulane

Pass Yards

212

Pass Attempts

28

Completions

19

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush Yards

213

Rush Att

43

Rush TDs

1.6

Turnovers

0.9

First Half

21.0

Tulane -2.6

Second Half

23.2

Tulane -2.4

Betting Overview

BEST BET · Spread · Charlotte +39.5 (-344) · LOW

Top recommended play highlighted below.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 7:30PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Dog

48.3% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

80.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: LEAN

Spread

Charlotte +39.5 (-344)

+6.9

Model Prob: 78.4%
Market Implied: 77.5%

Conference Trend

Pick

35-31-2

53.0%

Total

UNDER 62.5 (-380)

+15.0

Model Prob: 77.2%
Market Implied: 79.2%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +5.3
Total Delta: -1.1
Home Residual: +3.3
Away Residual: -5.0
Raw Total: 44.2
Adjusted Total: 47.5

Team Form & Stats

Charlotte

Record 1-10 · ATS 5-6 · O/U 6-5

Model Score

12.5

Vegas Spread

+29.5

Passing Yds

206

Rushing Yds

167

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush TDs

1.1

Tulane

Record 9-2 · ATS 5-5-1 · O/U 4-7

#24

Model Score

35.1

Vegas Spread

-29.5

Passing Yds

212

Rushing Yds

213

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush TDs

1.6

Recent Game Log

Charlotte

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs UTSA	L 7-28	✗	u
Nov 8, 2025	@ East Carolina	L 22-48	✓	o
Oct 24, 2025	vs North Texas	L 20-54	✗	o
Oct 18, 2025	vs Temple	L 14-49	✗	o
Oct 11, 2025	@ Army	L 7-24	✓	u

Tulane

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Florida Atlantic	W 35-24	✗	u
Nov 7, 2025	@ Memphis	W 38-32	✓	o
Oct 30, 2025	@ UTSA	L 26-48	✗	o
Oct 18, 2025	vs Army	W 24-17	✗	u
Oct 9, 2025	vs East Carolina	W 26-19	✗	u

Offensive Projections

Charlotte

Pass Yards

206

Pass Attempts

34

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

167

Rush Att

33

Rush TDs

1.1

Turnovers

1.1

Tulane

Pass Yards

212

Pass Attempts

28

Completions

19

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush Yards

213

Rush Att

43

Rush TDs

1.6

Turnovers

0.9

First Half

21.0

Tulane -2.6

Second Half

23.2

Tulane -2.4

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 78%

Total Confidence LEAN

Model Probability: 77%

Recommended Bets

SPREAD

Charlotte +39.5 (-344)

78%

Edge

+6.9 pts

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 53.5

Model Play Line 62.5

Model Projection 47.5

Edge UNDER by 15.0

UNDER 77% Confidence

23%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

North Carolina

+250

4-7 • ATS: 5-6 • O/U: 4-7

19.3

Raw: 21.1 • Adj: 19.3

+7.5

Nov 29 • 7:30PM ET

VS

O/U 48 Model: 41 (u)

NC State

-310

6-5 • ATS: 5-6 • O/U: 6-5

21.5

Raw: 18.6 • Adj: 21.5

-7.5

44%

56%

Spread Pick

North Carolina +17.5 (-332)(78% Cover Probability)

Away Dog Edge 5.3 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 57.5 (-375)(78% Hit Probability)

Edge 16.7 pts

Offensive Projections

North Carolina

Pass Yards

160

Pass Attempts

27

Completions

15

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

224

Rush Att

43

Rush TDs

1.4

Turnovers

0.7

NC State

Pass Yards

215

Pass Attempts

35

Completions

21

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush Yards

168

Rush Att

33

Rush TDs

1.3

Turnovers

1.2

First Half

18.7

North Carolina -0.9

Second Half

21.1

North Carolina -1.7

Betting Overview

BEST BET · Spread · North Carolina +17.5 (-332) · LOW

Top recommended play highlighted below.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 7:30PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Dog

48.3% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

80.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: LEAN

Spread

North Carolina +17.5 (-332)

+5.3

Model Prob: 78.4%
Market Implied: 76.9%

Conference Trend

Pick

36-37-3

49.3%

Total

UNDER 57.5 (-375)

+16.7

Model Prob: 78.1%
Market Implied: 78.9%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +1.0
Total Delta: -2.6
Home Residual: -1.3
Away Residual: -2.9
Raw Total: 39.7
Adjusted Total: 40.8

Team Form & Stats

North Carolina

Record 4-7 · ATS 5-6 · O/U 4-7

Model Score

19.3

Vegas Spread

+7.5

Passing Yds

160

Rushing Yds

224

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush TDs

1.4

NC State

Record 6-5 · ATS 5-6 · O/U 6-5

Model Score

21.5

Vegas Spread

-7.5

Passing Yds

215

Rushing Yds

168

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush TDs

1.3

Recent Game Log

North Carolina

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Wake Forest	L 12-28	✗	o
Nov 8, 2025	vs Stanford	W 20-15	✗	u
Oct 31, 2025	@ Syracuse	W 27-10	✓	u
Oct 25, 2025	vs Virginia	L 16-17	✓	u
Oct 17, 2025	@ California	L 18-21	✓	u

NC State

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Miami	L 7-41	✗	u
Nov 1, 2025	vs Georgia Tech	W 48-36	✓	o
Oct 25, 2025	@ Pittsburgh	L 34-53	✗	o
Oct 11, 2025	@ Notre Dame	L 7-36	✗	u
Sep 27, 2025	vs Virginia Tech	L 21-23	✗	u

Offensive Projections

North Carolina

Pass Yards

160

Pass Attempts

27

Completions

15

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

224

Rush Att

43

Rush TDs

1.4

Turnovers

0.7

NC State

Pass Yards

215

Pass Attempts

35

Completions

21

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush Yards

168

Rush Att

33

Rush TDs

1.3

Turnovers

1.2

First Half

18.7

North Carolina -0.9

Second Half

21.1

North Carolina -1.7

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 78%

Total Confidence LEAN

Model Probability: 78%

Recommended Bets

SPREAD

North Carolina +17.5 (-332)

78%

Edge

+5.3 pts

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 48

Model Play Line 57.5

Model Projection 40.8

Edge UNDER by 16.7

UNDER 78% Confidence

22%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

SMU

-550

8-3 • ATS: 5-6 • O/U: 3-8

30.8

Raw: 26.3 • Adj: 30.8

-13.5

Nov 29 • 8:00PM ET

VS

O/U 52.5 Model: 50 (u)

California

+410

6-5 • ATS: 4-7 • O/U: 3-8

19.1

Raw: 17.6 • Adj: 19.1

+13.5

74.8%

25.2%

Spread Pick

California +23.5 (-384)(78% Cover Probability)

Home Dog Edge 1.8 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 62.5 (-315)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 12.6 pts

Offensive Projections

SMU

Pass Yards

213

Pass Attempts

36

Completions

20

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush Yards

227

Rush Att

43

Rush TDs

1.7

Turnovers

1.1

California

Pass Yards

160

Pass Attempts

39

Completions

19

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush Yards

207

Rush Att

39

Rush TDs

1.0

Turnovers

0.8

First Half

20.8

SMU -3.0

Second Half

23.1

SMU -5.5

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 8:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Dog

55.4% hit

ML Segment

Away Favorite

72.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

California +23.5 (-384)

+1.8

Model Prob: 78.4%
Market Implied: 79.3%

Conference Trend

Pick

36-37-3

49.3%

Total

UNDER 62.5 (-315)

+12.6

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 75.9%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +1.9
Total Delta: +2.1
Home Residual: +0.1
Away Residual: +3.1
Raw Total: 43.9
Adjusted Total: 49.9

Team Form & Stats

SMU

Record 8-3 · ATS 5-6 · O/U 3-8

Model Score

30.8

Vegas Spread

-13.5

Passing Yds

213

Rushing Yds

227

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush TDs

1.7

California

Record 6-5 · ATS 4-7 · O/U 3-8

Model Score

19.1

Vegas Spread

+13.5

Passing Yds

160

Rushing Yds

207

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush TDs

1.0

Recent Game Log

SMU

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 8, 2025	@ Boston College	W 45-13	✓	o
Nov 1, 2025	vs Miami	W 26-20	✓	u
Oct 25, 2025	@ Wake Forest	L 12-13	✗	u
Oct 18, 2025	@ Clemson	W 35-24	✓	o
Oct 11, 2025	vs Stanford	W 34-10	✓	u

California

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 8, 2025	@ Louisville	W 29-26	✓	o
Nov 1, 2025	vs Virginia	L 21-31	✗	u
Oct 24, 2025	@ Virginia Tech	L 34-42	✗	o
Oct 17, 2025	vs North Carolina	W 21-18	✗	u
Oct 4, 2025	vs Duke	L 21-45	✗	o

Offensive Projections

SMU

Pass Yards

213

Pass Attempts

36

Completions

20

Pass TDs

1.6

Rush Yards

227

Rush Att

43

Rush TDs

1.7

Turnovers

1.1

California

Pass Yards

160

Pass Attempts

39

Completions

19

Pass TDs

1.3

Rush Yards

207

Rush Att

39

Rush TDs

1.0

Turnovers

0.8

First Half

20.8

SMU -3.0

Second Half

23.1

SMU -5.5

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 78%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 52.5

Model Play Line 62.5

Model Projection 49.9

Edge UNDER by 12.6

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

UNLV

-325

9-2 • ATS: 6-5 • O/U: 6-5

30.4

Raw: 22.2 • Adj: 30.4

-7.5

Nov 29 • 9:00PM ET

VS

O/U 53.5 Model: 52.5 (u)

Nevada

+260

3-8 • ATS: 5-6 • O/U: 3-8

21.9

Raw: 20.3 • Adj: 21.9

+7.5

70.6%

29.4%

Spread Pick

Nevada +17.5 (-324)(78% Cover Probability)

Away Favorite Edge 1.0 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 63.5 (-361)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 11.1 pts

Offensive Projections

UNLV

Pass Yards

158

Pass Attempts

31

Completions

17

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

227

Rush Att

41

Rush TDs

1.6

Turnovers

0.6

Nevada

Pass Yards

173

Pass Attempts

32

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

199

Rush Att

39

Rush TDs

1.3

Turnovers

1.0

First Half

20.0

UNLV -0.8

Second Half

22.5

UNLV -1.1

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 9:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Favorite

70.4% hit

ML Segment

Away Favorite

72.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Nevada +17.5 (-324)

-1.0

Model Prob: 78.4%
Market Implied: 76.4%

Conference Trend

Pick

33-22-1

60.0%

Total

UNDER 63.5 (-361)

+11.1

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 78.3%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +5.2
Total Delta: +4.2
Home Residual: -0.8
Away Residual: +7.4
Raw Total: 42.5
Adjusted Total: 52.4

Team Form & Stats

UNLV

Record 9-2 · ATS 6-5 · O/U 6-5

Model Score

30.4

Vegas Spread

-7.5

Passing Yds

158

Rushing Yds

227

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush TDs

1.6

Nevada

Record 3-8 · ATS 5-6 · O/U 3-8

Model Score

21.9

Vegas Spread

+7.5

Passing Yds

173

Rushing Yds

199

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush TDs

1.3

Recent Game Log

UNLV

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Utah State	W 29-26	✗	u
Nov 8, 2025	@ Colorado State	W 42-10	✓	u
Nov 1, 2025	vs New Mexico	L 35-40	✗	o
Oct 18, 2025	@ Boise State	L 31-56	✗	o
Oct 11, 2025	vs Air Force	W 51-48	✗	o

Nevada

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs San José State	W 55-10	✓	o
Nov 8, 2025	@ Utah State	L 14-51	✗	o
Oct 24, 2025	vs Boise State	L 3-24	✗	u
Oct 18, 2025	@ New Mexico	L 22-24	✓	u
Oct 11, 2025	vs San Diego State	L 10-44	✗	o

Offensive Projections

UNLV

Pass Yards

158

Pass Attempts

31

Completions

17

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

227

Rush Att

41

Rush TDs

1.6

Turnovers

0.6

Nevada

Pass Yards

173

Pass Attempts

32

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

199

Rush Att

39

Rush TDs

1.3

Turnovers

1.0

First Half

20.0

UNLV -0.8

Second Half

22.5

UNLV -1.1

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 78%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 53.5

Model Play Line 63.5

Model Projection 52.4

Edge UNDER by 11.1

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

#9

Notre Dame

-9000

9-2 • ATS: 6-5 • O/U: 5-6

39.3

Raw: 25.1 • Adj: 39.3

-32.5

Nov 29 • 10:30PM ET

VS

O/U 50.5 Model: 51.5 (o)

Stanford

+2500

4-7 • ATS: 4-7 • O/U: 5-6

12.0

Raw: 15.1 • Adj: 12.0

+32.5

96.4%

3.6%

Spread Pick

Stanford +42.5 (-365)(78% Cover Probability)

Home Dog Edge 5.3 pts

Total Pick

OVER 40.5 (-426)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 10.8 pts

Offensive Projections

Notre Dame

Pass Yards

179

Pass Attempts

32

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush Yards

231

Rush Att

40

Rush TDs

1.8

Turnovers

0.7

Stanford

Pass Yards

142

Pass Attempts

32

Completions

17

Pass TDs

0.9

Rush Yards

203

Rush Att

39

Rush TDs

0.9

Turnovers

1.3

First Half

18.0

Notre Dame -4.8

Second Half

22.1

Notre Dame -5.1

Betting Overview

BEST BET · Spread · Stanford +42.5 (-365) · LOW

Top recommended play highlighted below.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 10:30PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Dog

55.4% hit

ML Segment

Away Favorite

72.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Stanford +42.5 (-365)

+5.3

Model Prob: 78.4%
Market Implied: 78.5%

Conference Trend

Pick

36-37-3

49.3%

Opponent

4-2

66.7%

Total

OVER 40.5 (-426)

+10.8

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 81.0%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +6.0
Total Delta: +6.0
Home Residual: -0.3
Away Residual: +9.3
Raw Total: 40.2
Adjusted Total: 51.3

Team Form & Stats

Notre Dame

Record 9-2 · ATS 6-5 · O/U 5-6

#9

Model Score

39.3

Vegas Spread

-32.5

Passing Yds

179

Rushing Yds

231

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush TDs

1.8

Stanford

Record 4-7 · ATS 4-7 · O/U 5-6

Model Score

12.0

Vegas Spread

+32.5

Passing Yds

142

Rushing Yds

203

Pass TDs

0.9

Rush TDs

0.9

Recent Game Log

Notre Dame

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Pittsburgh	W 37-15	✓	u
Nov 8, 2025	vs Navy	W 49-10	✓	o
Nov 1, 2025	@ Boston College	W 25-10	✗	u
Oct 18, 2025	vs USC	W 34-24	✗	u
Oct 11, 2025	vs NC State	W 36-7	✓	u

Stanford

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 8, 2025	@ North Carolina	L 15-20	✓	u
Nov 1, 2025	vs Pittsburgh	L 20-35	✗	o
Oct 25, 2025	@ Miami	L 7-42	✗	o
Oct 18, 2025	vs Florida State	W 20-13	✓	u
Oct 11, 2025	@ SMU	L 10-34	✗	u

Offensive Projections

Notre Dame

Pass Yards

179

Pass Attempts

32

Completions

18

Pass TDs

1.5

Rush Yards

231

Rush Att

40

Rush TDs

1.8

Turnovers

0.7

Stanford

Pass Yards

142

Pass Attempts

32

Completions

17

Pass TDs

0.9

Rush Yards

203

Rush Att

39

Rush TDs

0.9

Turnovers

1.3

First Half

18.0

Notre Dame -4.8

Second Half

22.1

Notre Dame -5.1

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 78%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

Recommended Bets

SPREAD

Stanford +42.5 (-365)

78%

Edge

+5.3 pts

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 50.5

Model Play Line 40.5

Model Projection 51.3

Edge OVER by 10.8

OVER 79% Confidence

OVER 79%

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Fresno State

-155

7-4 • ATS: 5-6 • O/U: 4-7

18.2

Raw: 19.8 • Adj: 18.2

-3

Nov 29 • 10:30PM ET

VS

O/U 46.5 Model: 40.5 (u)

San José State

+130

3-8 • ATS: 4-7 • O/U: 6-5

22.1

Raw: 26.4 • Adj: 22.1

+3

40.4%

59.6%

Spread Pick

San José State +12.5 (-365)(77% Cover Probability)

Away Favorite Edge 0.8 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 56.5 (-349)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 16.2 pts

Offensive Projections

Fresno State

Pass Yards

200

Pass Attempts

36

Completions

21

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

187

Rush Att

40

Rush TDs

1.2

Turnovers

1.1

San José State

Pass Yards

267

Pass Attempts

38

Completions

24

Pass TDs

1.8

Rush Yards

191

Rush Att

38

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

1.2

First Half

21.3

San José State -3.1

Second Half

24.8

San José State -3.4

Betting Overview

BEST BET · Spread · San José State +12.5 (-365) · LOW

Top recommended play highlighted below.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 10:30PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Favorite

70.4% hit

ML Segment

Home Dog

47.9% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

San José State +12.5 (-365)

-0.8

Model Prob: 77.4%
Market Implied: 78.5%

Conference Trend

Pick

33-22-1

60.0%

Total

UNDER 56.5 (-349)

+16.2

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 77.7%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: -0.7
Total Delta: -6.0
Home Residual: -4.0
Away Residual: -5.6
Raw Total: 46.2
Adjusted Total: 40.3

Team Form & Stats

Fresno State

Record 7-4 · ATS 5-6 · O/U 4-7

Model Score

18.2

Vegas Spread

-3

Passing Yds

200

Rushing Yds

187

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush TDs

1.2

San José State

Record 3-8 · ATS 4-7 · O/U 6-5

Model Score

22.1

Vegas Spread

+3

Passing Yds

267

Rushing Yds

191

Pass TDs

1.8

Rush TDs

1.5

Recent Game Log

Fresno State

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	vs Wyoming	W 24-3	✓	u
Nov 1, 2025	@ Boise State	W 30-7	✓	u
Oct 25, 2025	vs San Diego State	L 0-23	✗	u
Oct 10, 2025	@ Colorado State	L 21-49	✗	o
Oct 4, 2025	vs Nevada	W 20-17	✗	u

San José State

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Nevada	L 10-55	✗	o
Nov 8, 2025	vs Air Force	L 16-26	✗	u
Nov 1, 2025	vs Hawai'i	W 45-38	✓	o
Oct 17, 2025	@ Utah State	L 25-30	✗	u
Oct 11, 2025	@ Wyoming	L 28-35	✗	o

Offensive Projections

Fresno State

Pass Yards

200

Pass Attempts

36

Completions

21

Pass TDs

1.2

Rush Yards

187

Rush Att

40

Rush TDs

1.2

Turnovers

1.1

San José State

Pass Yards

267

Pass Attempts

38

Completions

24

Pass TDs

1.8

Rush Yards

191

Rush Att

38

Rush TDs

1.5

Turnovers

1.2

First Half

21.3

San José State -3.1

Second Half

24.8

San José State -3.4

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 77%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

Recommended Bets

SPREAD

San José State +12.5 (-365)

77%

Edge

-0.8 pts

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 46.5

Model Play Line 56.5

Model Projection 40.3

Edge UNDER by 16.2

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Wyoming

+260

4-7 • ATS: 5-6 • O/U: 2-9

18.5

Raw: 19.3 • Adj: 18.5

+7.5

Nov 29 • 11:00PM ET

VS

O/U 44.5 Model: 43.5 (u)

Hawai'i

-325

7-4 • ATS: 7-4 • O/U: 4-7

25.0

Raw: 14.8 • Adj: 25.0

-7.5

34.6%

65.4%

Spread Pick

Hawai'i +2.5 (-423)(68% Cover Probability)

Away Dog Edge 1.0 pts

Total Pick

UNDER 54.5 (-363)(79% Hit Probability)

Edge 11.0 pts

Offensive Projections

Wyoming

Pass Yards

140

Pass Attempts

29

Completions

15

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush Yards

222

Rush Att

45

Rush TDs

1.1

Turnovers

0.9

Hawai'i

Pass Yards

167

Pass Attempts

38

Completions

19

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

173

Rush Att

34

Rush TDs

0.8

Turnovers

1.1

First Half

15.9

Wyoming -1.9

Second Half

18.2

Wyoming -2.6

Betting Overview

Model Insights

Model confidence summary for this matchup.

Kickoff

11/29/2025 • 11:00PM ET

ATS Segment

Away Dog

48.3% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

80.3% hit

Model Edge

Spread: LOW · Total: CONFIDENT

Spread

Hawai'i +2.5 (-423)

-1.0

Model Prob: 68.0%
Market Implied: 80.9%

Conference Trend

Pick

33-22-1

60.0%

Total

UNDER 54.5 (-363)

+11.0

Model Prob: 78.7%
Market Implied: 78.4%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +6.0
Total Delta: +4.2
Home Residual: +10.2
Away Residual: -3.0
Raw Total: 34.1
Adjusted Total: 43.5

Team Form & Stats

Wyoming

Record 4-7 · ATS 5-6 · O/U 2-9

Model Score

18.5

Vegas Spread

+7.5

Passing Yds

140

Rushing Yds

222

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush TDs

1.1

Hawai'i

Record 7-4 · ATS 7-4 · O/U 4-7

Model Score

25.0

Vegas Spread

-7.5

Passing Yds

167

Rushing Yds

173

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush TDs

0.8

Recent Game Log

Wyoming

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 15, 2025	@ Fresno State	L 3-24	✗	u
Nov 1, 2025	@ San Diego State	L 7-24	✗	u
Oct 25, 2025	vs Colorado State	W 28-0	✓	u
Oct 18, 2025	@ Air Force	L 21-24	✓	u
Oct 11, 2025	vs San José State	W 35-28	✓	o

Hawai'i

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Nov 8, 2025	vs San Diego State	W 38-6	✓	u
Nov 1, 2025	@ San José State	L 38-45	✗	o
Oct 18, 2025	@ Colorado State	W 31-19	✓	u
Oct 11, 2025	vs Utah State	W 44-26	✓	o
Sep 27, 2025	@ Air Force	W 44-35	✓	o

Offensive Projections

Wyoming

Pass Yards

140

Pass Attempts

29

Completions

15

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush Yards

222

Rush Att

45

Rush TDs

1.1

Turnovers

0.9

Hawai'i

Pass Yards

167

Pass Attempts

38

Completions

19

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

173

Rush Att

34

Rush TDs

0.8

Turnovers

1.1

First Half

15.9

Wyoming -1.9

Second Half

18.2

Wyoming -2.6

Spread Confidence LOW

Model Probability: 68%

Total Confidence CONFIDENT

Model Probability: 79%

No high-confidence bets for this game

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 44.5

Model Play Line 54.5

Model Projection 43.5

Edge UNDER by 11.0

UNDER 79% Confidence

21%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Model Performance (634 games, Through Week 13)

Straight Up

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